We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
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Ep. 305: James van Geelen on ‘Haves vs Have Nots’ Theme, AI and Tariffs
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49:05James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative 'megatrends' poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come. In this podcast we discuss crossovers between emergency medicine and trading, importance of a beginner’s mindset, humility…
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Ep. 304: Zongyuan Zoe Liu on Calculated China vs Unpredictable US
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1:01:39Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. …
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Ep. 303: Mirza Baig on Trump’s Trade Strategy, China Risks and Canada’s Dilemma
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46:32Mirza has a track record of 20 years in the field of researching and trading global foreign exchange. His methodology is built on comprehensive research on underlying fundamentals, rigorous scenario analysis, and a low-frequency, high-conviction approach for idea generation. Mirza has worked at top-tier sell-side firms, including Morgan Stanley, BN…
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Ep. 302: Vania Stavrakeva on Macro News, Investor Flows and Trading Markets
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49:54Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. She has also produced innovative research on the global network of equity holdings and thei…
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Ep. 301: Andrew Polk on China’s Bet on Tech Supremacy
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49:26Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors. Previously, he was the resident China economist at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business. Andrew is the co-author of The Long, Soft …
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Ep. 300: Gary Gerstle on Decoding Trump: Power & Chaos (Live at Cambridge University)
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53:04Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 259: Thanos Papasavvas on Trump’s (Unsurprising) Geopolitical Shock
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51:05Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992. Thanos then embarked on a 20-year asset management career with CSFB Investment Management (Credit Suisse) and Investec Asset Management…
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Ep. 258: Randy Schwimmer on Why Private Credit Is Performing
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50:49Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets. Randy also serves on the firm’s Executive Committee and Senior Lending Investment Committee. Randy is also the Founder and Publisher of The…
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Ep. 257: Joe Lavorgna on Trump Supercharging US Growth
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37:53Joe Lavorgna is a Managing Director and Chief Economist for SMBC Nikko Securities. He was previously the Chief Economist for the Americas at Natixis. While there, Joe took a one-year leave of absence to serve in the Trump administration, where he was Special Assistant to the President, and Chief Economist of the National Economic Council. Prior to …
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Ep. 256: Max Stier on Trump Ripping Up Government
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45:42Max Stier is President and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service. The Partnership has been widely praised as a thought leader on federal government management issues. Max has worked previously in all three branches of the federal government. Most recently, Max worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, having served as the Deput…
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Chris Johnson spent nearly two decades at the CIA focusing on China and Asia. Today, Chris is the President and CEO of China Strategies Group. He also serves as a Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis and is a senior fellow in the office of the president at the Center for Strategic and In…
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Ep. 254: Jonny Matthews on US Economy and Why the Fed Will Not Cut in 2025
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1:00:07Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio. Earlier in his career, Johny spent 11 years at Citigroup, leading a team in equity deriv…
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Ep. 253: Barry Eichengreen on Trump Trade Policy, Dollar Status and Debt Crises
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43:38Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including ‘In Defense of Public Debt’ (Oxford University Press, 2021). In this podcast, we discuss the inflation regime, which central banks …
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Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World
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46:16Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss how US, Europe and Asia are fighting…
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Ep. 251: Phil Suttle on Fed Hiking in 2025
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47:04Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about how Trump 2.0 will impact macro, why tariffs…
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Ep. 250: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Non-Consensus View on Fed and Trump 2.0
28:46
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28:46Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode cov…
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Ep. 249: Mark Rzepczynski on Wicked Markets and Understanding Risk
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43:15Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income resear…
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Ep. 248: Shawn Edwards on How Bloomberg Is Using AI (Replay)
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43:47Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns…
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Ep. 247: Julia Azari on Trump’s Second Term, Constraints and Priorities
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42:44Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Chan…
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Ep. 246: Tomasz Nadrowski on Navigating Global Chaos
1:00:48
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1:00:48Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management. H…
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Ep. 245: Frank Kelly on Why Everyone Underestimates Trump
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54:21Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs. He served as a writer for President George H.W. Bush and then served at the Justice Department. From there, F…
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Ep. 244: In Memoriam - Professor Ian Shipsey on How Physics Can Change the World
1:06:13
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1:06:13In late September, I had the honour of recording a conversation with the late Professor Ian Shipsey, Head of Physics at Oxford University. Tragically, Professor Shipsey passed away shortly after our discussion. We are releasing this episode as a tribute to his remarkable contributions. Professor Shipsey was one of the leading particle physicists of…
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Ep. 243: Charles Engel on Currency Models, Carry Trades and Capital Flows
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39:12Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He has been a consultant to the Dallas and Chicago branches of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and th…
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Ep. 242: Alberto Gallo on Trump Impact, Geopolitics and Favourite Markets
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30:50Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and Lon…
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Ep. 241: Gary Gerstle on Trump’s Big Win and the Future of American Politics
53:39
53:39
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53:39Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 240: Ebrahim Rahbari on US Election Trades, Fed Cycle and German Challenges
43:07
43:07
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43:07Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi. The team was top ranked in the Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Survey. Prior to that, Ebrahim was Head of Global Macroeconomics at Citi. Ebrahim studied at Oxford and holds a PhD i…
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Ep. 239: Thomas Drechsel on Measuring Political Pressure on Fed, Predicting Fed, and Better Nowcasts
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49:49Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity. His work has been published in the Review of Economic Studies, the American Economic Journal and the J…
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Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda
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55:45Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodit…
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Ep. 237: Antonio Del Favero on the Fed’s Mistake, Inflation Risks and Financial Conditions
48:58
48:58
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48:58Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master’s in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master’s in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast…
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Ep. 236: Sean McMeekin on the Return of Communism
1:17:36
1:17:36
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1:17:36Sean McMeekin PhD was educated at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley. Having visited American and European battlefields, libraries and archives, venturing as far east as Russia and Turkey, he now teaches at Bard College. His eight award-winning books include ‘Stalin's War: A New History of World War’. His latest book is …
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Ep. 235: Christian Schwarz on AI Bubbles, Using AI in Trading and Synthetic Data
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42:12Christian is Managing Director and Head of Data Science in the financial markets division at Standard Chartered. He focuses on credit and previously worked at Mizuho and Credit Suisse. His postgraduate studies were in financial mathematics. In this podcast we discuss whether we are in an AI bubble, why credit markets have lagged other markets in ad…
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Ep. 234: Jay Pelosky on Bullish Equities, Early Cycle US and Trump Losing
1:00:18
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1:00:18Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss what the chances of recession are, U…
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Ep. 233: Mirza Baig on Best EM Trades, Fed Easing and China Carry Trade
30:23
30:23
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30:23Mirza Baig is a senior EM strategist at Macro Hive. He has been researching and trading global FX and rates products for 20 years. His career boasts affiliations with premier sell-side entities such as Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank. Moreover, his invaluable expertise from the buy-side perspective at Point 72 positions him uniquely …
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Ep. 232: Bob Elliott on US Recession Odds, Fed Policy and Equity Risks
36:33
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36:33Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team fo…
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Ep. 231: J. Doyne Farmer on Making Sense of Chaos
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46:12J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His book, Making…
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Ep. 230: Shawn Edwards on How Bloomberg Is Using AI
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43:47Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns…
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Ep. 229: Brad Setser on Yen Carry Trade, US-China Trade, and US Profit Offshoring
57:49
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57:49Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where…
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Ep. 228: Liang Ding on China’s Economy and Markets
44:34
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44:34My colleague Mirza Baig hosted this podcast on my behalf. Liang is a markets professional, with 20 years’ experience as a portfolio manager, quantitative analyst, currency strategist, and China economist. He has spent most of his career based in Germany, where he earned his PhD and worked at several asset managers including DWS. Liang recently retu…
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Ep. 227: Álvaro Cartea on AI Manipulating Markets (and What to Do About It)
55:42
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55:42Álvaro Cartea is Professor of Mathematical Finance in the Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, and director of the Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance. He is a founding member and deputy chairman of the Commodities & Energy Markets Association (CEMA). Before coming to Oxford, Álvaro was Reader in Mathematical Finance at University…
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Ep. 226: Gary Gerstle on Kamala Impact, Trump Policies and Political Realignments
47:14
47:14
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47:14Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 225: Dr Pippa Malmgren on Trump’s Plans, Peace Dividend, and Space Tech
54:05
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54:05Dr. Pippa Malmgren is an economist who makes sense of the world economy by writing books, founding tech businesses, advising policymakers around the world and through public speaking and teaching. She lectures at Sandhurst and is a Founder member of the Lunar University, a NASA-originated project to ensure the first human institution on the moon re…
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Ep. 224: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz on Macro Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
57:58
57:58
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57:58Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He co-leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York. They have recently published a new book, ‘Shocks, C…
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Ep. 223: Shahin Vallée on French Election Fallout, Second Round Scenarios, and Germany’s Debt Brake
25:58
25:58
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25:58My colleague Henry Occelston hosted this podcast on my behalf. Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm. He was previously an economic advisor to the President of the European Counc…
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Ep. 222: Boris Vladimirov on US Exceptionalism, Europe Risks and China Weakness
48:53
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48:53Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell side, which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris gives his personal opinions and not those of Gold…
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Ep. 221: Vasileios Gkionakis on European Election Fallout, Fed and Fiscal Risks
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39:15
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39:15Vasileios is Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors – a £226bn global asset management firm. Based in London, he is responsible for monitoring and analysing macroeconomic developments and markets as well as formulating major asset class views, leading research and strategy in the UK and Europe. Previously, he held senior research …
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Ep. 220: George Selgin on Fed Independence, Poor Operations and Inflation
1:03:34
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1:03:34George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books, including ‘The Theory of Free Banking’, ‘Floored! How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Rec…
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Ep. 219: Jason Furman on Inflation Persistence, Fed Policy and Debt Levels
40:14
40:14
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40:14Jason Furman is the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He is also non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously, Furman served eight years as a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, …
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Ep. 218: Gordon Hanson on US-China Trade War, Immigration and US Elections
48:28
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48:28Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Gordon’s current research addresses the causes and consequences of regional jo…
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Ep. 217: Mustafa Chowdhury on Surging Wealth, Hidden Bond Buyers and Fed Mistakes
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44:35Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-Head of Asset-Liabilit…
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Ep. 216: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Inflation Persistence, Immigration Surge and Trump Effect
38:30
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38:30Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode cov…
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