Best Cembalest Podcasts (2025)

1
Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks 21:06

Play Pause

5d ago21:06

21:06

Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacit…

1
The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack 27:07

27d ago27:07

27:07

In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago an…

1
Fair Shakes 33:25

2M ago33:25

33:25

Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Summer mailbag 43:12

3M ago43:12

43:12

Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market 12:08

3M ago12:08

12:08

Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insightsBy Michael Cembalest

1
"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups 20:37

4M ago20:37

20:37

Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different? View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill 16:29

5M ago16:29

16:29

A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming 29:49

5M ago29:49

29:49

With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker 26:07

6M ago26:07

26:07

Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation …

1
Redacted 13:00

7M ago13:00

13:00

Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Fifty Days of Grey 18:07

7M ago18:07

18:07

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the u…

1
Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear 19:58

8M ago19:58

19:58

Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a …

1
From Here to Eternity 10:30

8M ago10:30

10:30

From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statuto…

1
Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders 19:45

9M ago19:45

19:45

Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the m…

1
Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists 36:13

10M ago36:13

36:13

Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list. View the video here…

1
The Year of Living Dangerously 16:34

10M ago16:34

16:34

I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story 20:02

12M ago20:02

20:02

A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.…

1
The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade 14:14

1y ago14:14

14:14

For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here to read the full PDF and view the video.By Michael Cembalest

1
Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election 29:24

1y ago29:24

29:24

Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implications for investors: government spending, taxation, tariffs, trade, immigration, regulation, NATO, energy, price …

1
A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market 25:26

1y ago25:26

25:26

NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
There’s no place like home 18:38

1y ago18:38

18:38

A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home …

1
The Lion in Winter 16:43

1y ago16:43

16:43

From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs …

1
The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State 19:51

1+ y ago19:51

19:51

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District…

1
A Piece of the Action 9:09

1+ y ago9:09

9:09

Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pre…

1
Animal Farm 23:33

1+ y ago23:33

23:33

With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering desig…

Cembalest Podcasts

1
Eye On The Market

Michael Cembalest

1
The Breakdown with James Lankford

The Breakdown with James Lankford

1
Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks 21:06

1
The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack 27:07

1
Fair Shakes 33:25

1
Summer mailbag 43:12

1
Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market 12:08

1
"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups 20:37

1
Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill 16:29

1
Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming 29:49

1
Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker 26:07

1
Redacted 13:00

1
Fifty Days of Grey 18:07

1
Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear 19:58

1
From Here to Eternity 10:30

1
Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders 19:45

1
Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists 36:13

1
The Year of Living Dangerously 16:34

1
"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story 20:02

1
The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade 14:14

1
Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election 29:24

1
A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market 25:26

1
There’s no place like home 18:38

1
The Lion in Winter 16:43

1
The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State 19:51

1
A Piece of the Action 9:09

1
Animal Farm 23:33