Best Michael Ashton The Inflation Guy Podcasts (2025)

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Ep. 146: This Month's CPI Report - Not Getting to 2% 26:33

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2d ago26:33

26:33

It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the p…

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Ep. 145: Beware the Coming Inflation Bounce 16:12

7d ago16:12

16:12

The Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inf…

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Ep. 144: Socialism and Inflation 31:27

21d ago31:27

31:27

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit abou…

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Ep. 143: This Month’s CPI – Where Oh Where Have the Tariffs Gone? 28:49

1M ago28:49

28:49

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode! NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025…

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Ep. 142: This Month's CPI Report - The Sky is NOT Falling (at Least, Not Yet) 29:59

2M ago29:59

29:59

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Cer…

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Ep. 141: Policy Volatility and Systemic Adaptability 33:20

3M ago33:20

33:20

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all ba…

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Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin 23:00

3M ago23:00

23:00

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money. Please read the important discla…

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Ep. 139: This Month's CPI Report – Uncertainty Reigns 29:25

3M ago29:25

29:25

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and …

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Ep. 138: Reciprocal Tariff Day and the Adaptability of Manufacturing 22:40

4M ago22:40

22:40

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from…

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Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause 35:25

4M ago35:25

35:25

The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump …

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Ep. 136: This Month's CPI Report – Settling in, Too High 23:00

4M ago23:00

23:00

It's time for the monthly CPI report, and this one seems apiece with other economic happenings recently: December and January were all over the place, but in February the inflation numbers are settling back down. The problem is, they're settling in at too high a level, and it gets harder and harder to see how we are going to get inflation back to t…

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Ep. 135: Is the DOGE Dividend Inflationary? 34:44

4M ago34:44

34:44

We are moving too fast, with too many topics! The Inflation Guy hits on four different topics today before running out of time and deferring some until the next episode. Today, (a) Is the 'DOGE Dividend' inflationary? (b) How impactful are 25% tariffs on the price level? (And ironically, taxpayers might actually make money in real terms on the deal…

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Ep. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable? 31:00

5M ago31:00

31:00

Today the Inflation Guy answers a listener's question, which is 'if the US were ever to have sustained 0% inflation, what would the effects be?' It is a simple question but it leads to some profound thoughts about what price stability is, and what it means...if anything. Of course, you have to listen to the Inflation Guy's weekly gripe first, but y…

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Ep. 133: This Month's CPI Report – I Guess We Are Still Transitory-ing? 34:19

5M ago34:19

34:19

It's the monthly inflation report for January's CPI, and this one was surprising. It would have been alarming, except that we have been through five years of inflation unlike anything we had seen since the 1980s. So, we're jaded. The Inflation Guy walks through today's report and considers wildfires, tariffs, and most-favored-nation status. A tour …

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Ep. 132: Crazy is Anti-Inflationary 19:40

5M ago19:40

19:40

Today's episode is somewhat shorter than the norm, since last week's episode was a little longer than the norm. Today, the Inflation Guy notes that M2 money velocity declined very slightly in Q4, and points out a weird - but possibly important - effect that could have the perverse effect of dampening inflation slightly. (To be sure, the Inflation G…

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Ep. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't Know 40:15

6M ago40:15

40:15

It seems every day these days we hear about another tariff being applied to a trading partner of the U.S. (or, more usually, being threatened). The usual media reaction to these threats are something along the lines of saying "Oh my sainted aunt. This sort of talk gives me the vapors" because it is so, so, so bad. Tariffs are archaic shibboleths th…

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Ep. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2% 34:45

6M ago34:45

34:45

Today the Inflation Guy answers a reader question. What are the long-term effects of having 4% inflation compared with 2% inflation? Does that small increase in the inflation rate have any important ramifications? Hooo yeah you betcha it does. The Inflation Guy goes through a number of them, and feels like he probably left some out in the process. …

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Ep. 129: This Month's CPI Report – This One Isn’t the Story 28:43

6M ago28:43

28:43

Let's face it: there is nothing more exciting than the monthly consumer inflation report. Don't we all agree on that? Is there any day that we collectively brace the day with such enthusiasm as the day the CPI report comes out? Surely not. However, this month...the December CPI...just isn't the story. The Inflation Guy today dutifully addresses the…

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Ep. 128: Will Wildfires Change the Inflation Trajectory? 29:27

6M ago29:27

29:27

It's 2025, and the Inflation Guy - like inflation itself, actually - is not yet dead. After a one-month hiatus, he kicks off the new year with a quick review of the current state of affairs and then addresses the question of whether the catastrophic California wildfires will help push inflation higher. It isn't as if that is the most-important thin…

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Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection 30:34

8M ago30:34

30:34

For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty ea…

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Ep. 126: Firing Federal Workers is a Positive Supply Shock 25:58

8M ago25:58

25:58

This is one of the rare podcast episodes that you might consider listening to at 75% speed instead of 125%. Because the Inflation Guy is feeling feisty, and when he feels feisty he talks fast. And he's feisty because today (why today, of all days? No one knows) he is especially triggered by the bad economics going around that suggests that mass lay…

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Ep. 125: This Month's CPI Report - Premature Accommodation 27:06

8M ago27:06

27:06

Well, it was always a risk for the Fed to start their rate-cutting path with a highly-unusual 50bps cut, while inflation was still high. But after today's CPI report, that unusual (some would say suspiciously political-looking) move puts the Fed in a difficult bind. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the CPI report and explains how the …

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Ep.124: Market Thoughts After a Trump Victory 40:01

8M ago40:01

40:01

Contrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response,…

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Ep. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-Boo 25:31

9M ago25:31

25:31

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve…

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Ep. 122: The Role of Linkers in Portfolio Construction, with Chris Clothier 57:44

10M ago57:44

57:44

The Inflation Guy Podcast welcomes a special guest this week: Chris Clothier, co-CIO of UK asset manager CG Asset Management. Together, Chris and the Inflation Guy discuss how they think about inflation-linked bonds in the context of a portfolio: how to think about their return; different aspects of their risk; and what role/benefit they play in th…

Michael Ashton The Inflation Guy Podcasts

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Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy

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Ep. 146: This Month's CPI Report - Not Getting to 2% 26:33

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Ep. 145: Beware the Coming Inflation Bounce 16:12

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Ep. 144: Socialism and Inflation 31:27

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Ep. 143: This Month’s CPI – Where Oh Where Have the Tariffs Gone? 28:49

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Ep. 142: This Month's CPI Report - The Sky is NOT Falling (at Least, Not Yet) 29:59

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Ep. 141: Policy Volatility and Systemic Adaptability 33:20

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Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin 23:00

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Ep. 139: This Month's CPI Report – Uncertainty Reigns 29:25

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Ep. 138: Reciprocal Tariff Day and the Adaptability of Manufacturing 22:40

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Ep. 137: Drug Prices and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause 35:25

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Ep. 136: This Month's CPI Report – Settling in, Too High 23:00

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Ep. 135: Is the DOGE Dividend Inflationary? 34:44

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Ep. 134: What if Prices Really Were Stable? 31:00

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Ep. 133: This Month's CPI Report – I Guess We Are Still Transitory-ing? 34:19

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Ep. 132: Crazy is Anti-Inflationary 19:40

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Ep. 131: How Tariffs Affect You - Three Things You Maybe Didn't Know 40:15

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Ep. 130: The Long-Term Effects of 4% Inflation vs 2% 34:45

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Ep. 129: This Month's CPI Report – This One Isn’t the Story 28:43

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Ep. 128: Will Wildfires Change the Inflation Trajectory? 29:27

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Ep. 127: The Point of Inflation Inflection 30:34

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Ep. 126: Firing Federal Workers is a Positive Supply Shock 25:58

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Ep. 125: This Month's CPI Report - Premature Accommodation 27:06

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Ep.124: Market Thoughts After a Trump Victory 40:01

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Ep. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-Boo 25:31

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Ep. 122: The Role of Linkers in Portfolio Construction, with Chris Clothier 57:44