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Jeff DeGraaf Podcasts

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RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrum ...
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More than just your typical market analysis podcast, EFGAM'S CIO Moz Afzal goes Beyond the benchmark, delving into current topics and global trends with guests and experts from within EFG and further afield. The podcast is released fortnightly.
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Welcome to the "On The Tape" podcast, hosted by Danny Moses. For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giv ...
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show series
 
RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the administration’s escalating pressure on Maduro, surprising weakness in data-center stocks and fading construction momentum as utility costs climb. Also on tap: market leadershi…
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In this episode of 'On the Tape,' Danny Moses is joined by JB Mackenzie, Vice President and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, to discuss the burgeoning event contracts sector, including Robinhood's recent acquisitions and partnerships. They delve into prediction markets, emphasizing how Robinhood engages retail investors th…
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Evgenia Goti, Global Head of Wealth Planning at EFG joins Moz to shed light on both the technical and human considerations of structuring family wealth across generations. As the great wealth transfer gathers pace, she explains how families can preserve cohesion and avoid common pitfalls while building legacies. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://bit.ly/…
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RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may f…
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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Danny Moses to discuss various market trends and investment strategies. The discussion spans topics such as AI's impact on the market, the performance of key sectors like healthcare, energy, and technology, and the challenges posed by economic indicators and geopolitical factors. They delve into the volatility and p…
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RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff ro…
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What’s really on the mind of strategists and economists right now? In this special, bitesize update episode of Beyond the Benchmark, Daniel Murray, EFG’s Deputy CIO, delivers the key takeaways from his recent trip to the US, covering tariffs, valuations and the future of the Federal Reserve. Our host, Sam Jochim: https://bit.ly/4o0EYzr Our guest: D…
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Danny Moses, despite feeling under the weather, is joined by Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel to discuss various market trends and insights. They begin with Danny's reflections on his recent health scare and the invaluable care provided by healthcare professionals. The discussion then shifts to the macroeconomic climate, particularly the sustainab…
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RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyc…
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Danny Moses hosts Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, on the On the Tape Podcast. In this episode, they discuss the SRF and SOFR rates, recent stresses in the repo markets, and the US Treasury's actions to alleviate funding issues. Luke explains the systemic risks in the financial system, the influence of hedge funds in the US Treasury ma…
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RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump’s tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetoric, and what 52-week highs and lows are signaling about market breadth. They also explore why crypto’s stalling…
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Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global unpacks the shifting macro landscape, from trade tensions and tariff impacts to the rapid industrial and AI revolutions reshaping markets. In focus are the contrasting inflation dynamics between the US and Europe, risks tied to AI valuations, and what investors should watch in the months ahead. Our hos…
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Danny welcomes Ivy Zelman, founder of Zelman Associates, who is acclaimed as the best housing analyst of all time. The discussion covers a wide range of topics within the housing market, including the challenges of affordability, the impact of rate cuts, and the prevalence of mortgage rate buy-downs. Ivy provides her perspective on the current stat…
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RenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the AI boom is masking deeper labor and credit stress. deGraaf breaks down the difference between trend and momen…
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RenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatomy of bubbles and why gold’s surge is flashing early warning signs. Pavs tracks Trump’s escalating trade brinkm…
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As the US economy eagerly awaits labour market data and whisperings of an AI bubble grow, Moz talks to Michael Leithead, Head of Fixed Income at EFGAM about the path ahead. In the spotlight are Fed rate cuts, the economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence and what some of the idiosyncratic risks are to be aware of in the current cycle. Our host, M…
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In this episode of the On the Tape Podcast, host Danny Moses discusses market insights with Jeff deGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research. Jeff elaborates on the structure and focus of his firm, the team's expertise, and their approach to research. The conversation covers Jeff's career journey from Merrill Lynch to Lehman Brother…
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RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-to…
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Neil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a front seat to the US consumer. In this episode of the RenMac Legends Podcast, we talk about consumer trends and what's driving the recent strength, the benefits of large private sector data sets give…
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Danny welcomes Dennis DeBusschere, President of 22V Research on for another podcast appearance! Together, they dissect the ever-changing landscape of markets and the economy, diving deep into volatile Fed policy, government shutdown drama, AI-driven earnings momentum, and the latest on U.S.-China dynamics following a recent trip to Shanghai and Bei…
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RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities buoyant. The team discusses the deepening government shutdown and its missing “pain point,” the global drivers behind gold’s parabolic surge, andWashington’s growing industrial policy push into rare ear…
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Renowned market technician Jeff deGraaf, Chairman and CEO of RenMac, helps explain what time it is on RenMac's Market Cycle Clock, and what it signals for equities. Alongside discussing sector opportunities, he also lays out the case for why he believes we’re in a broad-based global bull market, despite near term consolidation risks. Our host, Moz …
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Danny Moses interviews Shana Sissel, CEO and founder of Banríon Capital Managemen, known as the 'queen of alternatives.' Shana shares her journey in the financial industry, including roles at Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments, Russell Investments, and Orion, and discusses the evolution and importance of alternative investments. She highlights th…
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RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape. The team flags complacency in recession odds,highlights sentiment risks in semis, and explains why healthcar…
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iCapital's new Chief Investment Strategist Sonali Basak joins Danny on the latest On The Tape podcast! Sonali shares her extraordinary journey from media to Wall Street, reflecting on how she’s helping to shape content strategies for leading financial firms while empowering investors to make better decisions. We dive into her experiences launching …
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RenMac welcomes guest Sam Ro as the team unpacks Feddynamics as Trump appointees push aggressive cuts, rising odds of a government shutdown with threats of federal layoffs, and the latest wave of sectoral tariffs. They debate whether cooling labor markets could paradoxically boostmargins, explore the challenges of measuring productivity amid AI ado…
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Danny Moses talks to Meredith Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, about the current state of the housing market and consumer finance. Meredith highlights the sluggishness in existing home sales, attributing it to seniors holding onto their homes and tapping into home equity loans. She discusses the consumer spending patterns of Gen…
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RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts matter for markets, and what the latest housing and construction data signal for jobs andgrowth. The team also looks at how small caps and cyclicals are powering breadth in the market, whether momentum can o…
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In this special short episode of Beyond the Benchmark, GianLuigi and Stefan give their immediate reaction to the Fed's 17 September decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While a true picture of market reaction is yet to be seen, Stefan highlights some of the learnings to be gleaned from the decision about how the FOMC is currently oper…
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Danny welcomes Keith McCullough, founder of Hedgeye and a former Yale hockey captain, to discuss his journey from Yale hockey to Wall Street and the establishment of his independent research firm, Hedgeye. Keith shares insights on his disciplined work ethic, cultivated through hockey, and how it translates to his work in finance. He reflects on his…
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RenMac discusses how Fed politics and the upcoming FOMC decision are colliding with market expectations, why shutdown risks remain elevated despite hopes for cooler partisan tensions, and how tariffs with China, Mexico, and India are evolving in unexpected ways. The team also debates whether markets are signaling resilience or simply fibbing in the…
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The US consumer remains a crucial pillar of the economy, but what happens when they face the combined pressures of high interest rates and trade tariffs? In this episode, Chelsea Wiater, Senior Portfolio Manager for New Capital’s US growth equity strategies, unpacks the evolving habits of American consumers. She explores the striking divergence bet…
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Danny Moses is LIVE from the Hood Summit 2025 in Las Vegas. He is joined by JB Mackenzie, VP and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, along with his Seawolf Capital co-founders, Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel. The discussion covers innovations such as event contracts, the impact of AI, and the importance of product evolutio…
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In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish to a bearish contrarian signal, and how government shutdown odds are climbing well above normal. The team also digs into gold’s breakout amid falling yields, the shifting dynamics between semis, small c…
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In this episode of On the Tape, the host is joined by Ryan Glasspiegel of Front Office Sports to discuss the convergence of sports, business, media, and gambling. The conversation explores the rise of legalized sports betting, evolving media rights deals, and the impact of gambling on sports franchise valuations. Ryan shares his career journey and …
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Collapsing birth rates are taking the world into uncharted territory, according to research done by James Pomeroy and HSBC. Shrinking populations from China to Europe will put unprecedented pressure on fiscal policy, but bright spots for investors still remain in the developing world. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://bit.ly/31XbkTR Our guest: James Pom…
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This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor…
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In this episode of the 'On The Tape' podcast, host Danny Moses, along with Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, discuss several key topics in the financial markets. They start with a discussion about the newly launched "What Are We Doing" Substack newsletter, sharing insights into their process of delivering valuable content. The conversation covers …
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RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum h…
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In the first of a special three-part series, Giorgio Pradelli, CEO of EFG International, joins Moz to discuss his personal and professional journey. From his early days in Torino, Italy, to leading one of Europe’s top private banks, Giorgio shares valuable insights on leadership, decision-making, building a strong company culture, and the importanc…
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Bob Elliott, co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, joins the show to discuss his extensive investment experience, including his time as the head of investment research at Bridgewater Associates. The conversation covers Elliott's background, his work on significant economic events like the 2008 financial crisis, and the founding of Unlimited, which…
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RenMac discusses the latest in economic data, including how prices are flattering retail sales; the leap to get the FOMC to support a 50bp move; market leadership from small caps to Asia and the improvement in consumer discretionary relative to staples; and why the government’s stake in Intel is part of a more muscular industrial policy approach to…
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In the wake of the 'big, beautiful bill', Don Rissmiller shares his view that 2026 and beyond look positive for the US economy. However, there may be some turbulence in the final months of 2025 as tariff disruption and geopolitical pressures wash through the system. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://bit.ly/31XbkTR Our guest: Don Rissmiller, Partner and …
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Danny interviews Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. Phil shares his journey from being a travel blogger to becoming a renowned financial journalist. Despite his youth, Phil has a wealth of experience, having lived on three continents, authored two Amazon bestselling books, and being a Fulbright scholar. He talks about…
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RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game theory is guiding Trump’s Fed chess match and whether or not Waller is already acting as shadow Fed chair…
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Danny Moses is joined by James Lavish, co-founder and co-manager of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. They discuss their shared views on macroeconomic issues such as unsustainable debt and the vulnerability of fiat currencies. James describes his journey from a Yale hockey player to a Wall Street trader and Bitcoin enthusiast. The conversation covers t…
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RenMac unpacks the sharp job revisions and weakening prime-age employment suggesting contraction, explores the Fed’s credibility crisis and potential for a September-to-December rate cut cycle, critiques Trump’s strategic positioning on the Fed Chair with Waller as the dark horse and flag narrowing breadth, seasonality risks, and why copper’s news-…
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RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearish propaganda than insightful utility, and the negative global liquidity story imbedded in JGB normalization and the Yen carry trade unwind.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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