Audio versions of essays by Joe Carlsmith. Philosophy, futurism, and other topics. Text versions at joecarlsmith.com.
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Hear This Idea is a podcast showcasing new thinking in philosophy, the social sciences, and effective altruism. Each episode has an accompanying write-up at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes.
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We should try extremely hard to use AI labor to help address the alignment problem. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2025/03/14/ai-for-ai-safetyBy Joe Carlsmith
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#83 – Max Smeets on Barriers To Cyberweapons
1:36:19
1:36:19
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1:36:19Max Smeets is a Senior Researcher at ETH Zurich's Center for Security Studies and Co-Director of Virtual Routes You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/smeets In this episode we talk about: The different types of cyber operations that a nation state might launch How international norms formed around what kind of cyber a…
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On the structure of the path to safe superintelligence, and some possible milestones along the way. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/paths-and-waystations-in-ai-safetyBy Joe Carlsmith
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When should we worry about AI power-seeking?
46:54
46:54
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46:54Examining the conditions required for rogue AI behavior. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/when-should-we-worry-about-ai-powerBy Joe Carlsmith
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What is it to solve the alignment problem?
40:13
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40:13Also: to avoid it? Handle it? Solve it forever? Solve it completely? Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/what-is-it-to-solve-the-alignmentBy Joe Carlsmith
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Introduction to a series of essays about paths to safe and useful superintelligence. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/how-do-we-solve-the-alignment-problemBy Joe Carlsmith
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When the line pulls at your hand. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2025/01/28/fake-thinking-and-real-thinking/.By Joe Carlsmith
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Takes on "Alignment Faking in Large Language Models"
1:27:54
1:27:54
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1:27:54What can we learn from recent empirical demonstrations of scheming in frontier models? Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/12/18/takes-on-alignment-faking-in-large-language-models/By Joe Carlsmith
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#82 – Tom Kalil on Institutions for Innovation (with Matt Clancy)
1:17:37
1:17:37
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1:17:37Tom Kalil is the CEO of Renaissance Philanthropy. He also served in the White House for two presidents (under Obama and Clinton); where he helped establish incentive prizes in government through challenge.gov; in addition to dozens of science and tech program. More recently Tom served as the Chief Innovation Officer at Schmidt Futures, where he hel…
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#81 – Cynthia Schuck on Quantifying Animal Welfare
1:37:16
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1:37:16Dr Cynthia Schuck-Paim is the Scientific Director of the Welfare Footprint Project, a scientific effort to quantify animal welfare to inform practice, policy, investing and purchasing decisions. You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/schuck. We discuss: How to begin thinking about quantifying animal experiences in a cr…
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#80 – Dan Williams on How Persuasion Works
1:48:43
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1:48:43Dan Williams is a Lecturer in Philosophy at the University of Sussex and an Associate Fellow at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (CFI) at the University of Cambridge. You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/williams. We discuss: If reasoning is so useful, why are we so bad at it? Do some bad ideas re…
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(Part 2, AI takeover) Extended audio from my conversation with Dwarkesh Patel
2:07:33
2:07:33
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2:07:33Extended audio from my conversation with Dwarkesh Patel. This part focuses on the basic story about AI takeover. Transcript available on my website here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/09/30/part-2-ai-takeover-extended-audio-transcript-from-my-conversation-with-dwarkesh-patelBy Joe Carlsmith
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(Part 1, Otherness) Extended audio from my conversation with Dwarkesh Patel
3:58:38
3:58:38
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3:58:38Extended audio from my conversation with Dwarkesh Patel. This part focuses on my series "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." Transcript available on my website here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/09/30/part-1-otherness-extended-audio-transcript-from-my-conversation-with-dwarkesh-patel/
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#79 – Tamay Besiroglu on Explosive Growth from AI
2:09:19
2:09:19
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2:09:19Tamay Besiroglu is a researcher working on the intersection of economics and AI. He is currently the Associate Director of Epoch AI, a research institute investigating key trends and questions that will shape the trajectory and governance of AI. You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/besiroglu In this episode we talked…
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#78 – Jacob Trefethen on Global Health R&D
2:30:16
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2:30:16Jacob Trefethen oversees Open Philanthropy’s science and science policy programs. He was a Henry Fellow at Harvard University, and has a B.A. from the University of Cambridge. You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/trefethen In this episode we talked about open source the risks and benefits of open source AI models. We…
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#77 – Elizabeth Seger on Open Sourcing AI
1:20:49
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1:20:49Elizabeth Seger is the Director of Technology Policy at Demos, a cross-party UK think tank with a program on trustworthy AI. You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/seger In this episode we talked about open source the risks and benefits of open source AI models. We talk about: What ‘open source’ really means What is (a…
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Introduction and summary for "Otherness and control in the age of AGI"
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12:23This is the introduction and summary for my series "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/02/otherness-and-control-in-the-age-of-agiBy Joe Carlsmith
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Second half of full audio for "Otherness and control in the age of AGI"
4:11:02
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4:11:02Second half of the full audio for my series on how agents with different values should relate to one another, and on the ethics of seeking and sharing power. First half here: https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/15266490-first-half-of-full-audio-for-otherness-and-control-in-the-age-of-agi PDF of the full series here: https://jc.gatspres…
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First half of full audio for "Otherness and control in the age of AGI"
3:07:29
3:07:29
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3:07:29First half of the full audio for my series on how agents with different values should relate to one another, and on the ethics of seeking and sharing power. Second half here: https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/15272132-second-half-of-full-audio-for-otherness-and-control-in-the-age-of-agi PDF of the full series here: https://jc.gatspre…
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Garden, campfire, healing water. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/06/18/loving-a-world-you-dont-trust This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief text summaries of the essays that have been release…
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Examining a certain kind of meaning-laden receptivity to the world. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/03/25/on-attunement This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief text summaries of the essays tha…
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Examining a philosophical vibe that I think contrasts in interesting ways with "deep atheism." Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/03/21/on-green This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief text summa…
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Joe Carlsmith is a writer, researcher, and philosopher. He works as a senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy, where he focuses on existential risk from advanced artificial intelligence. He also writes independently about various topics in philosophy and futurism, and holds a doctorate in philosophy from the University of Oxford. You can find …
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#75 – Eric Schwitzgebel on Digital Consciousness and the Weirdness of the World
1:58:50
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1:58:50Eric Schwitzgebel is a professor of philosophy at the University of California, Riverside. His main interests include connections between empirical psychology and philosophy of mind and the nature of belief. His book The Weirdness of the World can be found here. We talk about: The possibility of digital consciousness Policy ideas for avoiding major…
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What does it take to avoid tyranny towards to the future? Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/18/on-the-abolition-of-man This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief text summaries of the essays tha…
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Let's be the sort of species that aliens wouldn't fear the way we fear paperclippers. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/16/being-nicer-than-clippy/ This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief tex…
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Who isn't a paperclipper? Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/11/an-even-deeper-atheism This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief summaries of the essays that have been released thus far: https:/…
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Examining Robin Hanson's critique of the AI risk discourse. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/09/does-ai-risk-other-the-ais This essay is part of a series of essays called "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief summaries of the essays…
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On the connection between deep atheism and seeking control. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/08/when-yang-goes-wrong This essay is part of a series of essays called "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief summaries of the essays that …
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On a certain kind of fundamental mistrust towards Nature. Text version here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/04/deep-atheism-and-ai-risk This is the second essay in my series “Otherness and control in the age of AGI. I’m hoping that the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief summaries of the essays released …
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AIs as fellow creatures. And on getting eaten. Link: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/02/gentleness-and-the-artificial-other This is the first essay in a series of essays that I’m calling “Otherness and control in the age of AGI.” See here for more about the series as a whole: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/02/otherness-and-control-in-the-age-of-…
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In search of benevolence (or: what should you get Clippy for Christmas?)
52:52
52:52
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52:52What is altruism towards a paperclipper? Can you paint with all the colors of the wind at once? (This is a recording of an essay originally published in 2021. Text here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2021/07/19/in-search-of-benevolence-or-what-should-you-get-clippy-for-christmas)By Joe Carlsmith
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#74 – Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons
1:54:05
1:54:05
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1:54:05Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley is an associate professor at George Mason University and Deputy Director of their Biodefence Programme In this episode we talk about: Where the belief that 'bioweapons are easy to make' came from and why it has been difficult to change Why transferring tacit knowledge is so difficult -- and the particular challenges that …
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Bonus: 'How I Learned To Love Shrimp' & David Coman-Hidy
1:18:47
1:18:47
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1:18:47In this bonus episode we are sharing an episode by another podcast: How I Learned To Love Shrimp. It is co-hosted by Amy Odene and James Ozden, who together are "showcasing innovative and impactful ways to help animals". In this interview they speak to David Coman-Hidy, who is the former President of The Humane –League, one of the largest farm anim…
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#73 – Michelle Lavery on the Science of Animal Welfare
1:27:35
1:27:35
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1:27:35Michelle Lavery is a Program Associate with Open Philanthropy’s Farm Animal Welfare team, with a focus on the science and study of animal behaviour & welfare. You can see more links and a full transcript at hearthisidea.com/episodes/lavery In this episode we talk about: How do scientists study animal emotions in the first place? How is a "science" …
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Speed arguments against scheming (Section 4.4-4.7 of "Scheming AIs")
15:19
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15:19This is section 4.4 through 4.7 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here…
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Arguments for/against scheming that focus on the path SGD takes (Section 3 of "Scheming AIs")
29:03
29:03
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29:03This is section 3 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://joec…
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How useful for alignment-relevant work are AIs with short-term goals? (Section 2.2.4.3 of "Scheming AIs")
9:21
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9:21This is section 2.2.4.3 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https:…
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The goal-guarding hypothesis (Section 2.3.1.1 of "Scheming AIs")
19:11
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19:11This is section 2.3.1.1 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https:…
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Simplicity arguments for scheming (Section 4.3 of "Scheming AIs")
19:37
19:37
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19:37This is section 4.3 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://jo…
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The counting argument for scheming (Sections 4.1 and 4.2 of "Scheming AIs")
10:40
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10:40This is sections 4.1 and 4.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: h…
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Non-classic stories about scheming (Section 2.3.2 of "Scheming AIs")
24:34
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24:34This is section 2.3.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://…
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Does scheming lead to adequate future empowerment? (Section 2.3.1.2 of "Scheming AIs")
22:54
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22:54This is section 2.3.1.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https:…
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Is scheming more likely if you train models to have long-term goals? (Sections 2.2.4.1-2.2.4.2 of "Scheming AIs")
9:01
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9:01This is sections 2.2.4.1-2.2.4.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary her…
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Empirical work that might shed light on scheming (Section 6 of "Scheming AIs")
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28:00This is section 6 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://joec…
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This is section 5 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://joec…
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Two concepts of an "episode" (Section 2.2.1 of "Scheming AIs")
12:08
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12:08This is section 2.2.1 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://…
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Situational awareness (Section 2.1 of "Scheming AIs")
9:27
9:27
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9:27This is section 2.1 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://jo…
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Two sources of beyond-episode goals (Section 2.2.2 of "Scheming AIs")
21:25
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21:25This is section 2.2.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://…
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"Clean" vs. "messy" goal-directedness (Section 2.2.3 of "Scheming AIs")
16:44
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16:44This is section 2.2.3 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379 Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power Audio summary here: https://…
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