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Markets open after a CME outage as we track the odds of a December rate cut, soybean sales to China without a signed deal, and the shape of USDA’s bridge aid into 2026. We lay out the stakes on tariffs at the Supreme Court, biofuel rules, E15 delays, and Farm Bill 2.0 politics while cattle find a surprising bounce.
• Fed cut odds and leadership signals
• China soybean buys, enforcement, and price gaps
• USDA aid timing, scope, and funding risks
• Cotton and sorghum outlook with margin stress
• Deere guidance and machinery bottom watch
• India and Canada trade snags
• Food security reporting pause and SNAP recertification talk
• Supreme Court tariff case scenarios
• RFS, RINs, 45Z delays, and year-round E15
• Farm Bill 2.0 vote math and timelines
• Cattle border reopening, packer capacity, and price recovery
• Why Congress must codify to reduce court whiplash
All that for $25 a month. We’re up watching the markets 24 hours a day, so you don’t have to.
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Chapters
1. Holiday Open And CME Outage (00:00:00)
2. Fed Odds, Powell’s Future, Market Risk (00:00:43)
3. China Soybeans And Enforcement Gaps (00:03:19)
4. Farmer Aid Package Timing And Size (00:04:56)
5. Cotton, Sorghum, And Price Pain (00:07:18)
6. Deere Outlook And Farm Equipment Slump (00:08:49)
7. India And Canada Trade Hurdles (00:10:52)
8. Food Security Report And SNAP Fraud (00:12:11)
9. Premium Content And Community Notes (00:15:46)
10. ACA Credits, Shutdown Leverage, And Reform (00:17:15)
11. Supreme Court Tariff Case Stakes (00:18:58)
12. Cabinet Players And Trade Strategy (00:21:44)
13. Funding Deadlines And Minibus Path (00:23:23)
14. RFS, RINs, And E15 Timeline Tangles (00:24:48)
15. 45Z, SAF Rules, And Policy Drift (00:27:48)
16. Farm Bill 2.0 Math And Politics (00:28:55)
17. Cattle Industry Press, Border Reopen (00:31:08)
18. Tyson Closure Shock And Price Rebound (00:33:17)
19. Courts, Chevron, And Congressional Clarity (00:35:01)
20. Building The Bridge To 2026 (00:36:21)
74 episodes
