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This is Market Pulse — Thursday's Numbers

Oil
• U.S. markets closed today for Thanksgiving
• WTI: $58.24, up 0.52% from Wednesday's close
• Brent: $62.87, up 0.83%
• WTI-Brent spread: $4.63
• Over past month, WTI has fallen 5.02%, down 15.32% compared to same time last year
• Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as traders assessed potential impact of ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah
• Ceasefire agreement, brokered by U.S. and France, aims to end more than a year of conflict
• While deal reduces immediate geopolitical risk in Middle East, it's unlikely to significantly impact global oil supply, as neither Israel nor Lebanon are major oil producers
• Dominant market narrative remains oversupply concerns for 2026
• U.S. crude production continues to break records, with preliminary November figures approaching 13.8 million barrels per day
• OPEC's November Monthly Oil Market Report shifted its Q3 2025 global balance estimate from deficit to surplus due to increasing U.S. output and OPEC crude gains
• Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks continues to weigh on prices, with potential for Western sanctions on Russia's energy sector to be lifted raising concerns about supply glut
• Technical analysis shows WTI testing resistance around $58.19, with 100-day simple moving average still below 200-day simple moving average, indicating path of least resistance remains to downside
• However, stochastic and RSI indicators are climbing from oversold territory, reflecting strengthening bullish pressure

Gas
• Natural gas markets also closed for Thanksgiving
• Henry Hub: $4.58, up 0.88% from Wednesday
• Over past month, natural gas prices have increased 14.25%, up 42.86% compared to same time last year
• Natural gas prices have been volatile this week, breaking below ascending channel support earlier in week before recovering
• Commodity tested support around $4.14 level before bouncing
• Record production and strong storage levels have kept supplies ample, with output in Lower 48 states averaging 109.7 billion cubic feet per day in November, breaking previous monthly record
• Colder weather expected from November 28 to December 5, which could increase heating demand and provide support for prices
• LNG exports rising, with flows to major U.S. terminals averaging 18 billion cubic feet per day in November
• EIA has revised its 2025 average Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast upwards to $3.79 per million British thermal units, 20% increase from previous estimates
• For winter season, EIA forecasts average Henry Hub spot price of $3.90 per million British thermal units, peaking in January at $4.25

Real Estate
• Real estate market continues to show signs of stabilizing as we enter holiday season
• For first time in over two years, affordability is improving
• Home prices have softened in many markets, and mortgage rates hovering near 6% are giving buyers more room in their budgets
• Home values expected to increase modestly, with projections indicating rise of 1.2% over next 12 months
• Existing home sales projected to reach 4.09 million in 2025, 0.6% increase from 2024
• Inventory increasing across country, with active listings exceeding 1.1 million
• This provides buyers with more options and less competitive environment compared to recent years
• Industrial real estate remains resilient, with average asking rents for industrial properties rising 9% year-over-year
• Cap rates have declined slightly and appear to be at or beyond their cyclical peak
• Increased portfolio rebalancing towards industrial assets tightening competition in top markets like Southern California, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Atlanta

Credit
• Credit markets navigating new era shaped by clearing, innovation, and liquidity challenges
• Unlike disruptions of 2020 and 2022, credit spreads have widened without steep dislocations of prior crises, highlighting sector's structural evolution
• High-yield credit experienced turbulence, with CDX HY spreads widening before recovering as investors sought opportunities to add risk
• SOFR continues to serve as benchmark for overnight borrowing costs, replacing LIBOR as financial index
• SOFR averages are compounded averages of SOFR over rolling 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day periods
• Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September 2025, with further cuts anticipated through end of year and into 2026
• Markets pricing in potential rate cuts at December 9-10 Fed meeting, which could stimulate economic growth
• Senior secured loans with SOFR plus 650 basis points and LTV under 65% remain the target

Bottom Line
• Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75—markets closed for Thanksgiving, Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk but won't impact supply, oversupply concerns for 2026 remain dominant theme
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked—natural gas testing support at $4.14 before bouncing, colder weather expected through December 5 could increase heating demand
• Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs—affordability improving for first time in over two years, industrial rents up 9% year-over-year
• Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%—high-yield spreads widening before recovering, Fed rate cuts anticipated at December meeting

That's your Market Pulse update.

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Stay sharp, and enjoy the holiday.