Will the Great Resignation Spread?

The Metaculus Journal

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https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9527/will-the-great-resignation-spread/

In 2021 there were many stories about workers quitting jobs. Pundits dubbed this phenomenon the Great Resignation.

Statistically, the best measure of quits in the United States comes from the government's Job Openings and Labor Market Survey, or JOLTS. As of this writing, the latest release from the Department of Labor covered November activity. It reported that “the quits rate increased to 3.0 percent, matching a series high last seen in September.” So we are seeing the Great Resignation in the data.

As background, the Labor Department reports three major monthly national surveys. Two of these, the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey, have been used for many decades. The JOLTS survey is more recent, with no data prior to the 21st century.

The Household Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau but reported by the Labor Department, contacts a sample of 60,000 households in order to find the employment status of the adults. This survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate.

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