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GeoVolitics, Implied Correlation and Option Pricing

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Manage episode 469501126 series 2516749
Content provided by Dean Curnutt. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Dean Curnutt or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

My process is about seeking out some alpha through analyzing a broad spectrum of prices, specifically the one’s that imply some probability. I will repeat that it is the options market, not the stock market that is the best economist in the world. Option contracts carry the dimensions of time – the expiration – and distance – the strike price and the resulting prices help us gauge two important questions for investors, “when and by how much?”.
So, in no particular order, a few things on my mind that I invite you to consider alongside me. First, I explore the overlap between geopolitics and market volatility – “GeoVolitics”. If there was an index of geopolitical risk, it’s on the upswing to be sure. At some point, this uncertainty may become so profoundly difficult to price that market participants throw their hands up and assign substantial levels of risk premia, a higher price for insuring against loss across the major asset classes. I then consider the price of gold and finish with some thoughts on the tight levels of credit spreads and low level of credit implied volatility. I hope you enjoy and find this useful. Be well.

  continue reading

213 episodes

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iconShare
 
Manage episode 469501126 series 2516749
Content provided by Dean Curnutt. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Dean Curnutt or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

My process is about seeking out some alpha through analyzing a broad spectrum of prices, specifically the one’s that imply some probability. I will repeat that it is the options market, not the stock market that is the best economist in the world. Option contracts carry the dimensions of time – the expiration – and distance – the strike price and the resulting prices help us gauge two important questions for investors, “when and by how much?”.
So, in no particular order, a few things on my mind that I invite you to consider alongside me. First, I explore the overlap between geopolitics and market volatility – “GeoVolitics”. If there was an index of geopolitical risk, it’s on the upswing to be sure. At some point, this uncertainty may become so profoundly difficult to price that market participants throw their hands up and assign substantial levels of risk premia, a higher price for insuring against loss across the major asset classes. I then consider the price of gold and finish with some thoughts on the tight levels of credit spreads and low level of credit implied volatility. I hope you enjoy and find this useful. Be well.

  continue reading

213 episodes

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