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This week we look at the impact of a Kevin Hassett appointment as head of the Federal Reserve. Hasset is currently the front-runner for the top job at the Fed and a Trump acolyte. Translated into economics, this means a heightened likelihood of a dovish stance on interest rates. Throw in the mid-term elections into the mix and it would appear that H1 26 may well witness an environment of excessive liquidity and lower than expected interest rates to potentially lead to negative real yields which in turn drive capital into risk assets. In this scenario, the USD weakens. The inverse correlation of a weak USD are strong performances in global emerging markets (GEM), commodities and gold.
According to Goldman Sachs, 27% of global GDP resides in GEM stock markets. In parallel to developed markets, stock concentration persists. According to MSCI Global data, Like the MAG7, GEM has almost 25% of its total market capitalisation in just 10 stocks including TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba. We believe that that the AI and technology earnings momentum is far from over going into 2026. With that in mind the heavy tech concentration in the GEM MAG7 equivalent potentially offers the technology exposure but without the USD headwind. We’ll hear more about GEM from one of the world’s leading emerging markets investors, Phil Langham of RBC Asset Management in our interview segment in the new year.
If there’s going to be an overtly expansionist policy in H1 26 to garner mid-term votes, the likelihood is that inflation begins to bite in the second half of the year. With weak USD, lower rates and an inflationary overhang, gold is likely to continue to perform strongly in the coming year. We’ll hear from Simon Popple of the Gold Programme this week on why he thinks gold is likely to continue to offer investors a positive return in 2026. Industrial metals and the general commodities complex also benefit from a weak USD but copper & Uranium in particular are likely to witness structural growth thanks to the continued expansion of data centres, AI overlay and cloud facilitation. Both need connectivity and power and copper and Uranium are key in the foodchain.
Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.
You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.
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