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Will Everyone Get Nukes Now?

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Manage episode 479900910 series 2480756
Content provided by Jordan Schneider. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Jordan Schneider or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

What is Trump doing to extended deterrence?

I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It’s currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden’s National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

We get into…

  • The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence,

  • The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates,

  • Why France proliferated despite US objections,

  • How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia,

  • China’s nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world.

Here's the RAND paper cited: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GUMnuxWoapmEYCw3g3NMUHxzZ6hVwWPi/view?usp=sharing

Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

410 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 479900910 series 2480756
Content provided by Jordan Schneider. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Jordan Schneider or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

What is Trump doing to extended deterrence?

I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It’s currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden’s National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

We get into…

  • The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence,

  • The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates,

  • Why France proliferated despite US objections,

  • How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia,

  • China’s nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world.

Here's the RAND paper cited: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GUMnuxWoapmEYCw3g3NMUHxzZ6hVwWPi/view?usp=sharing

Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

410 episodes

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