Global Cocoa Market Update – Week of April 6, 2025

This episode delivers a strategic overview of major developments in the global cocoa market. Structural challenges, climate impacts, and evolving sustainability initiatives are shaping production trends across key producing regions.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast: Severe Mid-Crop Shortfall and Export Limits
Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa output is forecast to decline by 40%, falling to 580,000 metric tons amid prolonged drought and poor pod development. The Coffee and Cocoa Council plans to limit export sales to 1,300,000 metric tons, down from the usual 1,700,000, to avoid overcommitting amid production instability. While port arrivals rose 12%, aging farms and the spread of swollen shoot disease threaten long-term capacity.

Ghana: Output Hits Two-Decade Low Amid Sector Struggles
Cocobod has lowered its 2024–25 production forecast to 617,500 metric tons—the lowest in 20 years—due to disease outbreaks, erratic rainfall, and deteriorating farm conditions. Financial challenges are mounting, with underperforming yields leading to loan defaults. Policymakers are now under pressure to revise local processing restrictions to revitalize the cocoa economy.

Nigeria: Plans for Doubling Production Face Structural Risks
Nigeria targets a sharp increase in cocoa output to 500,000 metric tons by the 2025–26 season, backed by $40.5 million in agribusiness investments. However, smallholder farming dominance, resource gaps, and concerns over unsustainable monocropping present major hurdles. Advocacy for agroforestry is intensifying as a sustainable path forward.

Indonesia & Brazil: Scaling Agroforestry to Build Resilience
Indonesia is encouraging cocoa farmers to diversify crops by integrating bananas, coffee, and pepper to reduce climate risk. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cahua Fund aims to raise $176 million to support small-scale cocoa growers with sustainable farming practices, strengthening sector resilience.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Conflict-Driven Supply Disruptions
Armed conflict continues to destabilize cocoa production and supply chains in the DRC, adding further strain to the global market.

Costa Rica: Sustainable Cocoa Model Gains Momentum
Costa Rica’s donation of agricultural land to indigenous women for artisanal chocolate production highlights a successful blend of conservation, empowerment, and sustainable agriculture.

Strategic Implications:

• Severe Supply Risks: Output declines in West Africa point to growing vulnerabilities in the global cocoa supply chain.
• Agroforestry Leadership: Brazil and Indonesia are advancing models of sustainable cocoa cultivation that could become industry benchmarks.
• Policy Reforms Needed: Financial restructuring and processing policy changes are critical for key producers to weather ongoing challenges.