Ep93. Africa in the Age of Disorder

Disorder

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In 2024, the Disorder podcast looked a lot at Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, India, Bangledesh, and even north Africa… but we didn’t devote sufficient time to sub-saharan Africa. So what does Africa look like in the Age of Disorder?

To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK.

The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences.

Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this.

Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Producer: George McDonagh

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links

Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy

Read Has Sudan’s Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point

More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/

Read ACLED’s Raleigh Report from December 2024: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the-raleigh-report-december-2024/

Read Semafor’s Predictions for Africa in 2025: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2025/africa-in-2025

RUSI experts in this region are, Dr Joana de Deus Pereira https://www.rusi.org/people/de-deus-pereira, Christopher Hockey https://rusi.org/people/hockey , Michael Jones https://rusi.org/people/jones

Read RUSI’s paper, Conclusions Paper: Thematic Research Meeting on the Impacts of Disinformation Campaigns in the Sahel (Southern Neighbourhood) and Effects on Radicalisation and Extremist Movements in the EU: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/conclusions-paper-thematic-research-meeting-impacts-disinformation-campaigns-sahel-southern

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