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Rebound or Recession? Market Warning Signs - Jim Welsh #6274

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Manage episode 481697200 series 1401217
Content provided by Johnny Depth. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Johnny Depth or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.
Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discussed the recent market downturn, emphasizing the warning signs that indicated its vulnerability, such as perceptions of tariffs and diverging market indicators. Jim highlighted the psychological effects of a 20% decline, noting that a quick rebound can mitigate its impact. He expressed concerns about the economic divide in the U.S., where a significant portion of consumer spending comes from the top 10% of earners, suggesting that any decline in asset prices could lead to reduced spending. Both speakers agreed that the market is currently in a bear phase, with the S&P likely to revisit its April lows. The conversation also addressed the implications of the tariff war on the economy, with Jim forecasting a slowdown and rising unemployment, while questioning the stock market's preparedness for these outcomes. They discussed the inefficiencies in government spending, referencing a General Accountability Office report on waste and fraud, and commended efforts by individuals like Elon Musk to address these issues. Jim warned of a potential economic slowdown due to reduced spending and uncertainty among CEOs, while also noting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rates in response to unemployment trends. Both Lutz and Welsh expressed a cautious outlook on economic growth and the potential impacts of a strengthening dollar on gold prices. Find Jim here: MacroTides.com Find Kerry here: https://financialsurvivalnetwork.com and here: https://inflation.cafe
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1902 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 481697200 series 1401217
Content provided by Johnny Depth. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Johnny Depth or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.
Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discussed the recent market downturn, emphasizing the warning signs that indicated its vulnerability, such as perceptions of tariffs and diverging market indicators. Jim highlighted the psychological effects of a 20% decline, noting that a quick rebound can mitigate its impact. He expressed concerns about the economic divide in the U.S., where a significant portion of consumer spending comes from the top 10% of earners, suggesting that any decline in asset prices could lead to reduced spending. Both speakers agreed that the market is currently in a bear phase, with the S&P likely to revisit its April lows. The conversation also addressed the implications of the tariff war on the economy, with Jim forecasting a slowdown and rising unemployment, while questioning the stock market's preparedness for these outcomes. They discussed the inefficiencies in government spending, referencing a General Accountability Office report on waste and fraud, and commended efforts by individuals like Elon Musk to address these issues. Jim warned of a potential economic slowdown due to reduced spending and uncertainty among CEOs, while also noting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rates in response to unemployment trends. Both Lutz and Welsh expressed a cautious outlook on economic growth and the potential impacts of a strengthening dollar on gold prices. Find Jim here: MacroTides.com Find Kerry here: https://financialsurvivalnetwork.com and here: https://inflation.cafe
  continue reading

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