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This is Market Pulse — Friday's Numbers

Oil
• WTI: $59.27, up 1.06% from Thursday
• Brent: $62.85, up 0.49%
• WTI-Brent spread: $3.58
• Oil prices remained steady Friday as investors monitored Russia-Ukraine peace talks and upcoming OPEC+ meeting
• Both Brent and WTI on track for fourth consecutive monthly loss, longest decline since 2023, attributed to rising global oil supply
• WTI crude oil has been trading within descending channel since late October, approaching critical resistance test near $59.30
• 100-day simple moving average still below 200-day simple moving average, indicating path of least resistance remains to downside
• However, breakout and consolidation above $60.82 will allow asset to continue rising to levels of $70 to $77.65
• Investors closely watching Washington-led peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to eased sanctions on Russian oil and increase global supply
• Upcoming OPEC+ meeting also key factor influencing investor sentiment, with OPEC+ reportedly expected to maintain crude production levels
• Crude oil market in 2026 expected to be marked by large global oversupply
• Brent crude projected to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, while U.S. crude projected to average $59 per barrel
• Analysts largely expect oil market surplus in 2026, with estimates ranging from 0.5 to 4.2 million barrels per day
• Global oil demand expected to grow by 0.5 to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026

Gas
• Henry Hub: $4.66, up 0.59% from Thursday
• Over past month, natural gas prices have increased 22.04%, up 39.61% compared to same time last year
• U.S. natural gas futures on track for third consecutive monthly gain due to outlook for cold weather
• Natural gas has been trading within uptrend, respecting rising trend line since mid-October
• Technical analysis suggests that as long as ascending trend line support holds, natural gas poised for further gains
• Forecasts for colder weather have boosted heating demand expectations, driving prices up
• Strong LNG feedgas demand tightening balances, with export flows remaining strong
• Flows from eight major U.S. terminals averaged 18 billion cubic feet per day in November, up from October's record of 16.6 billion cubic feet per day
• Production in Lower 48 states remains near record highs
• Inventories reported to be highest since 2016
• EIA projected that Henry Hub spot prices would rise from $3.90 in winter 2025-2026 to average $4 in 2026, mainly due to increased LNG exports amidst flat production growth
• U.S. natural gas demand, including exports, on track to set new annual record

Real Estate
• Real estate market continues to show signs of stabilization as we close out November
• In United Kingdom, approximately 24,700 new properties came to market during week ending November 23rd, decrease from previous week's 26,100
• Year-to-date, there have been 1.61 million new listings, which is 0.8% higher than in 2024 and 8.4% above 2017-2019 average
• About 20,900 homes were sold subject to contract during week, down from 22,900 previous week
• Year-to-date, gross sales total 1.182 million, which is 3.4% ahead of 2024 and 12.2% above 2017-2019 average
• In Canada, Re/Max anticipates national home sales to increase by 3.4% in 2026
• They also project that average prices could fall by 3.7% in 2026
• New listings have increased year-over-year across all regions, with Ontario seeing 21% increase
• For first time in over two years, affordability is improving in U.S.
• Home prices have softened in many markets, and mortgage rates hovering near 6% are giving buyers more room in their budgets
• Industrial real estate remains resilient, with average asking rents for industrial properties rising 9% year-over-year
• Cap rates have declined slightly and appear to be at or beyond their cyclical peak

Credit
• SOFR was at 4.05% on November 26th
• SOFR Index, which measures cumulative impact of compounding SOFR, was 1.22217 as of November 28th
• Term SOFR rates for various maturities: 1-month at 3.86%, 3-month at 3.79%, 6-month at 3.70%, 12-month at 3.51%
• Credit markets continue to navigate new era shaped by clearing, innovation, and liquidity challenges
• High-yield credit experienced turbulence, with CDX HY spreads widening before recovering as investors sought opportunities to add risk
• Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September 2025, with further cuts anticipated through end of year and into 2026
• Markets pricing in potential rate cuts at December 9-10 Fed meeting, which could stimulate economic growth
• Senior secured loans with SOFR plus 650 basis points and LTV under 65% remain the target

Bottom Line
• Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75—fourth consecutive monthly loss, longest decline since 2023, WTI testing critical resistance near $59.30, 2026 oversupply expected with surplus estimates ranging from 0.5 to 4.2 million barrels per day
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked—third consecutive monthly gain, up 22% over past month, strong LNG demand tightening balances, exports averaging 18 billion cubic feet per day
• Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs—UK sales up 3.4% year-to-date, Canada projects 3.4% sales increase in 2026, affordability improving for first time in over two years
• Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%—Term SOFR rates declining across all maturities, Fed rate cuts anticipated at December meeting

That's your Market Pulse update.

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