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Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.
This is Market Pulse — Friday's numbers.
Market Snapshot:
- S&P 500: 6,646 (down 0.33%)
- Dow: 45,973 (down 0.65%)
- Nasdaq: 22,674 (down 0.36%)
- Friday futures pointing lower on regional bank concerns
Weekly Overview:
- Monday: 2.2% Nasdaq rally on softening China trade tensions
- Thursday: Selloff on regional bank loan worries erased gains
- Real estate led sectors: +1.7% Wednesday (Prologis strength)
- Energy lagged: Down over 4% on falling crude prices
Yields & Cost of Capital:
- 10-Year Treasury: 3.96% (below 4% for first time since April)
- 2-Year Treasury: 3.41%
- Yield curve: Inverted at -55 bps but narrowing
- Fed cut probability: 95-99% for 25 bps cut Oct 28-29
- Target range: 3.75% to 4%
Commodities:
- WTI Crude: $57.37 (down 4%+ on rising supply)
- Brent: $60.98 (down sharply)
- Spread: ~$3.60
- Gold: $4,341/oz (all-time high on safe-haven demand)
- Silver: $54.07/oz
- Copper: $4.88/lb (mixed industrial demand)
Oil & Gas:
- Production elevated, no OPEC cuts
- Permian breakevens: $48-$52
- Target: Sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $70
- Gas: $2.93/MMBtu (mild weather, high storage)
- Strategy: Lock winter contracts at favorable levels
Real Estate:
- Industrial cap rates: 5.5-5.7% near logistics hubs
- Multifamily: 6.2% in secondary markets
- Mortgage rates: ~7% (falling with Treasury yields)
- Best opportunities: Industrial sub-5.7% caps with long-term leases
Credit Markets:
- SOFR: 4.29% (up from 4.19%, tightening liquidity)
- Credit spreads widening globally
- Regional bank loan concerns raising red flags
- Strategy: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650+, LTV under 65%
Headline Movers:
- Broadcom: Soaring on OpenAI partnership
- ASML: Beat earnings on strong chip equipment bookings
- Regional banks: Hammered on loan fears (Zions, Western Alliance)
- Salesforce: +4% standout tech performer
Bottom Line:
- Yield curve signals lower rates but credit stress rising
- Oil: Target sub-$50 breakeven operators with strong hedges
- Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
- Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs
- Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650+, LTV under 65%
- Risk-off environment: Safe-haven assets rallying, risk assets under pressure
- Strategy: Stay defensive, stay patient, wait for better entry points
Visit GotTheGold.com. Make it a great day.
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