Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

This is Market Pulse — Monday's numbers.

Equities:
• Mixed Friday
• S&P 500 down 0.1% to 6,734
• Dow down 0.7%, shedding 310 points
• Nasdaq up 0.1%, tech showing resilience after Thursday's selloff
• Market digesting Fed rate cut timeline
• Investors cautious heading into week with focus on economic data and year-end positioning

Oil:
• WTI at $59.80, down marginally Friday
• Brent at $64.34, holding steady
• Both consolidating after Thursday's geopolitical rally
• Market balancing Ukraine tensions and Russia sanctions against persistent oversupply warnings
• EIA projecting U.S. crude output averaging 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026
• Brent forecasts at $54.92 per barrel for 2026, reflecting oversupplied markets
• Most firms expecting WTI between $65 to $75 by year-end 2025
• Executives projecting WTI averaging $68 near term, rising to $72 in two years, $77 in five years

Gas:
• Henry Hub at $4.45, down 2.58% Friday
• December futures settled near $4.65, up 67% year-over-year
• Winter demand supporting prices
• Storage levels tightening
• LNG exports remain elevated
• Market watching weather forecasts for heating demand signals

Production:
• Permian Basin output steady at 6.6 million barrels per day
• With WTI near $60, operators maintaining discipline
• Hedging activity elevated for 2025 and 2026
• Weighted average swap strike price for 2025 around $71 per barrel WTI
• Downside protection around $65 using collars
• Smaller companies with higher leverage most hedged
• Independent U.S. oil and gas companies reporting 2025 oil hedge ratio at 21% as of March
• Average oil producer needs $65 per barrel to profitably drill
• Backwardation reducing hedging activity for second half 2025 and 2026

Real Estate:
• Cap rates easing from cyclical peak
• Transaction volumes climbed Q1 2025, driven by multifamily and industrial activity
• Industrial sector strong on e-commerce and logistics demand
• Vacancy rates below pre-pandemic averages
• Multifamily leading transaction activity
• Office sector facing challenges, elevated vacancy rates
• Bifurcated market with widening gap between prime and non-prime properties
• Returns expected to be income-driven due to elevated long-term interest rates

Credit:
• Markets stable
• SOAFER spreads steady
• Investment-grade and high-yield spreads holding near multi-year lows
• Market expecting moderate GDP growth supported by easing financial conditions
• Uncertainty around interest rates persists
• Corporate refinancing activity strong heading into year-end

Bottom Line:
S&P down 0.1% to 6,734, Dow down 0.7%, Nasdaq up 0.1%. Oil consolidating, WTI at $60, Brent at $64. Oversupply concerns persist, Brent forecasts at $55 for 2026. Gas at $4.45, December futures up 67% year-over-year. Permian steady, operators hedging at $65 to $71 floors. Real estate cap rates easing, industrial and multifamily leading transactions. Credit markets stable, spreads near lows. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOAFER plus 650, LTV under 65%.

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