Markets Enter Max Payne

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

3d ago 15:22

MP3•Episode home

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌍 Market Surprise: Weakness Despite geopolitics, traders were caught off guard Monday. Despite major geopolitical events over the weekend, markets weakened instead of rallying. Crude oil briefly hit ~$78—the highest since January—but reversed sharply after breaking Friday’s ~$74 close. 🚫📈

With energy markets losing steam, grain futures—linked through biofuels—also fell under pressure. 🌾🔻

🌽 Corn Conditions Dip US corn crop conditions fell for the first time this season: 🔹 70% rated good/excellent, down from 72% last week 🔹 Still above the 5-year average of 64%

Biggest declines: Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska. Outside the Corn Belt: sharp drops in Colorado, Texas, and North Dakota. 🌦️

🌱 Soybean Ratings Hold Steady Soybeans remained at 66% good/excellent, above the 63% 5-year average. While most Corn Belt states saw declines, only Michigan and Ohio were below the national average. 🌿✅

🌾 Wheat Ratings Slide Again: Winter wheat: 🔻 49% good/excellent, down from 52% 🔻 Below analysts’ expectations ⚠️ Harvest is at 19%—behind the 28% average.

Spring wheat also declined: 🔻 54% good/excellent vs. 57% last week. 📉 Matches 5-year average but misses expectations Montana and South Dakota trailed the national average. 📊

🚢 Export Summary 📦 Corn: 1.5mmt exported, down 13% vs. last week, but up 28% YoY.

📦 Soybeans: 192,890mt ▪️ Below expectations ▪️ -14% WoW, -45% YoY

📦 Wheat: 254,782mt ▪️ -34% WoW, -26% YoY

💰 Fund Positions & CFTC Data: Funds grew more bearish on corn: 🔻 Net short increased by 19k to 169k contracts—the most since September.

Meanwhile: 🟢 Net buyers of 27k soybean and 13k SRW wheat contracts 📉 SRW net short now 74k—the smallest since February.

Funds were once seen as “indecisive,” but the growing short positions suggest a clear bearish bias. With the CN:CU spread nearly at carry, rolling shorts to Sept becomes cheaper—adding fuel to their stance. 📉📊

1477 episodes

#Trading #Business News #Business #News #pJoe Vaclavik #Farm #Agriculture #Grain #Marketing #Corn #Soybean #Wheat #Tractor