Most people in ETA quote the Stanford Search Fund Study, but almost no one looks at what investors actually earn. In this episode, we break down new Yale data from 1,192 investor-level outcomes and shows why access, not modeling, is the #1 driver of 10x MOIC, 30%+ IRR results.
You’ll learn why your portfolio will never be “the index”, how a tiny % of deals drive almost all returns, and what elite investors do differently to consistently catch those outliers. If you’re a searcher, investor, fund, or holdco, this is the episode that will change how you think about ETA returns forever.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Access as the #1 driver of outperformance & episode roadmap
0:40 Dinner scene: Stanford-slide searcher vs seasoned LP reality
2:15 Power laws, Magnificent Seven & how a few winners drive all returns
3:40 Yale study: 1,192 investor observations vs the Stanford search fund myth
5:35 Segment 1: The Illusion of the Stanford Index & why no one matches it
7:45 Segment 2: The Batting Cage Problem & why access determines investor outcomes
9:26 Segment 3: The Two-Stage Bet, broken searches, missing winners & 10x outcomes
14:13 Sponsor: Spacebar Studios - guaranteed 10,000 newsletter subscribers in 90 days
15:20 Elite ETA investor tier, access hierarchy & why “spray and pray” fails
17:51 Real odds for searchers, importance of elite access & final “respect the griffins” takeaway
Sponsors:
https://capitalpad.com/
https://www.spacebarstudios.co/inquire
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This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.