The Next Farm Crisis? Damian Mason on Tariffs, Trade Wars, Land Bubbles, Oversupply & Deglobalization

Impact Farming

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9d ago 52:30

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In this week’s episode of The Impact Farming Show, Tracy speaks with Damian Mason on “The Next Farm Crisis: Tariffs, Trade Wars, Land Bubbles, Oversupply & Deglobalization.”

Does history repeat itself? Well, it may not repeat itself exactly, but our current economic environment is showing many similarities to the farm crisis of the 1970s and 1980s.

Don’t miss this thought-provoking conversation.

Conversation Time Stamps

[0:00] - Introduction [1:40] - Is agriculture history repeating itself, with similarities from the 70s and 80s? [3:39] - The political, economic, trade, and productive climates are very similar to the 70s and 80s. [3:45] - Anyone in agriculture that is around 40 year olds only knows the golden age of North American agriculture. This is dangerous. [4:10] - 80’s were terrible. Damian shares about the 80s land values dropping, farm bankruptcies and farms so far upside down that the bank refused to foreclose. [6:17] - So, are we as bad as the 1980s? No, but Damian makes some startling comparisons that will raise a few eyebrows. [6:20] - What got us into the 80s farm crisis? Inflation, global strife, trade fights, oversupply, and uncertainty. We are facing all the same economic conditions right now. [8:31] - The World is vastly oversupplied, and this is being reflected in price and trade wars. [9:07] - Asset run-up is another factor. Land is at near record highs, as it was in the 1980s. [9:54] - Supply and demand. Tracy asks, “Are we still feeding a growing World, Damian?” [11:18] - Industrialization, innovation, and incredible yield advancement have outpaced population growth. [12:20] - North American 20 to 25 year “up cycle” in demand for agriculture products. [12:54] - We have reached productive capacity, and population growth is heading towards decline. [15:40] - Misleading messaging to farmers. “Feeding the growing World” is no longer accurate and is a dangerously misleading statement for farmers considering farm growth or not. [18:40] - PIK program from the 80s. Subsidizing farmers to reduce agricultural production in dairy, corn, etc. [19:36] - Vastly oversupplied right now. This is a similar tune to 80’s over supply. [20:00] - Caution to 40 and 50-year-old farmers on future agriculture and farm growth. [22:38] - “If you got the dirt, you cannot get hurt.” A younger generation is banking on land, which could never possibly decrease in value. [24:40] - Are we in a very different time in history? Attempting change of World powers. [26:07] - Deglobalization versus globalization. [27:28] - Trade wars, protectionism, tariffs, and de-globalization are one interconnected conversation. [28:30] - European agriculture protectionism. [29:50] - USA protectionism. Started long before Trump. [31:00] - Canadian protectionism: Canadian poultry and dairy supply management is protectionism. Pros and cons. [34:00] - Damian predicts supply management is coming to American agriculture. [36:40] - So what’s the answer? [37:00] - Just open new markets. The consumers are already being fed. No one is going unserved. [38:00] - We are now all fighting for the same consumer. No new consumers. [39:00] - Is this the new normal? What do farmers need to have on their radar? [39:30] - Damian predicts indefinite trade spats for the foreseeable future. [44:00] - Damian, what advice would you give to a 28-year-old young farmer who wants to expand the farm?

If you want a thought-provoking and non-mainstream conversation, don’t miss this episode!

Thanks for tuning in,

Tracy

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