by Laurel Baker the 2024 Rising Expert on Geostrategy in the Rising Experts Program at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy in collaboration with the Irregular Warfare Initiative's Project Maritime. Baker works for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory as a National Nuclear Security Administration Graduate Fellow.

Laurel Baker explores the emerging threat of unmanned maritime vehicles (UMVs) and their profound impact on irregular warfare and international security. Baker examines how these autonomous systems are reshaping naval strategy, challenging traditional maritime force compositions, and complicating the attribution of aggression at sea. She delves into the vulnerabilities of critical underwater infrastructure, particularly undersea cables, and how UMVs could be used for surveillance and sabotage. The piece discusses recent incidents involving UMVs, from Russian mapping operations to Houthi attacks, highlighting the lowered barriers to entry in maritime conflicts. Baker also addresses the legal and operational challenges posed by UMVs, including gaps in maritime law and difficulties in enforcement. The essay concludes by considering the implications for naval powers like the United States, suggesting the need for both defensive and offensive UMV capabilities, as well as regulatory reforms to address this new frontier in maritime security. Throughout, Baker emphasizes the dual nature of UMVs as both potential threats and valuable assets in the evolving landscape of naval warfare.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.

The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.

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