The Cincinnati Reds face critical decisions about three key players heading into 2026. Matt McLain's disappointing 2025 season (.220 BA, 0.0 WAR) following shoulder surgery has fans concerned, but his elite late-season peripherals—including a 44.4% hard hit rate versus 37% league average—suggest a bounce-back is coming. Ke'Bryan Hayes presents a fascinating dilemma: his Gold Glove defense and 1.4 WAR justify his $7 million salary, but his offensive struggles (78 OPS+ in 2025) create a lineup black hole through 2029. Graham Ashcraft's 3.99 ERA masks elite performance, with his 2.72 FIP, 99th percentile exit velocity, and league-best 38% chase rate indicating he was victimized by a .342 BABIP and poor defensive support.

Jeff Carr and Steven Offenbaker break down advanced metrics to defend these players against fan criticism while acknowledging legitimate concerns. The hosts analyze McLain's recovery timeline from total labrum repair, debate whether Hayes' defensive value outweighs offensive limitations, and make the case for Ashcraft as a potential closer candidate. They also discuss bullpen construction, roster philosophy, and realistic expectations for each player's 2026 contribution.

Tune in now for statistical deep dives and expert analysis on these crucial Cincinnati Reds roster decisions.

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