Gold and precious metals prices declined this week, relaxing slightly after a hectic autumn run up. The equities markets join the move lower and the dollar pushes back above 100. Even with the short-term pullback, the long-term patterns for gold signal this muli-year climb is not wrapped up yet. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, November 19: The price of gold is down about 3%, currently sitting at $4,175. The price of silver is down about 5%, sitting at $51.25 as of recording. Platinum is up 5.5% to $1,535. It seems to be a little stuck in the mid $1,500 range. Palladium is down 4.5% to just around $1,385. It is now about $150 behind its sister metal, platinum. Looking over at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 2.5% to 6,650, coming off recent high levels. The US Dollar Index is up about 0.5%, sitting at 100.25, an expected move with precious metals prices declining. Over the past several weeks, gold has retraced about 3% from its recent highs, currently trading just under $4,075 per ounce. Silver and other precious metals like platinum and palladium have followed a similar trend, with silver down about 5% and platinum roughly 5.5% lower in the same period. This pullback comes after a sharp rally where gold soared approximately 33% in just two months, climbing from near $3,300 in late August to almost $4,400 by October. Such rapid appreciation often leads to short-term consolidation, which you might see as a natural and healthy market rhythm rather than a cause for immediate concern. Gold’s Technical Landscape From a technical standpoint, gold’s short-term support has been testing the $3,970 level, which corresponds to key moving averages like the 20-day and 50-day averages. Meanwhile, the longer-term 200-day moving average, which historically serves as a critical indicator, has risen to around $3,425 but has not been touched since November 2023. Given how much gold has moved upwards recently, a retest of this average isn't out of the question. But it also shouldn’t signal panic. Instead, it's more akin to a welcome market breathing space for investors who prefer to accumulate physical metal at reasonable levels. Historical Parallels and Market Sentiment Looking back at gold’s historic price action from the early 2000s, you can see remarkable parallels with today’s market. Between 2001 and 2006, gold experienced significant rallies, including a 70% rise in one year, before stabilizing and moving higher. Gold also had similar phases leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. In that period, gold initially corrected alongside stocks but quickly rebounded, ultimately doubling as the crisis unfolded. So even if the stock market or other financial sectors were to experience severe corrections, physical gold tends to hold value and rebound swiftly, making it a robust asset for protective positioning.​ Why This Gold Rally is Unique Interestingly, this recent surge to a record near $4,000 per ounce is not driven solely by typical recessionary or geopolitical crises. Unlike past bull markets triggered by events like a pandemic or global financial crisis, today’s gold rally occurs amid relatively stable economic indicators and elevated interest rates. The dollar's strength and steady treasury yields suggest complex underlying forces, possibly including a shift in international monetary strategy, particularly between Eastern and Western financial powers. Central bank gold leasing activities are also evolving, with some retail leasing offers emerging—though we caution against these for typical physical gold investors due to concerns about control and security of ownership. Disciplined Investing Wins We maintain that the best way to accumulate more ounces is with a disciplined approach — including dollar-cost averaging, ratio trading between metals to optimize ounces, and incorporating metals into retirement accounts for long-term security. Consistent accumulation, especially as gold moves in steps rather than straight lines, prepares you for potential sharp price escalations during future market stress. Your Gold Strategy The team at McAlvany Precious Metals is happy to discuss your personal objectives for investing in gold and precious metals on a no-obligation, complimentary portfolio review. Whether you are seeking inflation protection, wealth preservation, or legacy building, we can help you find opportunities for growing your portfolio. Reach out to us at 800-525-9556.