In this episode of On the Ledge - your Ontario Politics Podcast:
Dave Trafford leads a dynamic roundtable with political veterans Tim Hudak, Keith Leslie, and John Wright, unpacking the seismic shifts in North American trade following Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement. From the economic aftershocks of “Liberation Day” to the potential realignment of Canadian politics, the panel delivers sharp, insightful analysis. The discussion touches on the targeted impacts of tariffs on Ontario and Quebec, federal political fallout, and the public’s mounting anxiety over affordability. The crew also examines campaign strategy pivots, polling signals, and the role of tone and leadership in a turbulent election cycle.
📌 Key Takeaways:

• Economic Fallout: Trump’s tariffs have already begun to shutter Canadian manufacturing (e.g., Stellantis plants), with the stock market in decline and global supply chains in disarray.
• Canadian Response: PM Carney and premiers are weighing cautious retaliation. Ford is praised for a strategic, measured approach.
• Targeted Impact: Tariffs disproportionately hit Ontario and Quebec, sparking regional tensions over national strategy.
• Political Shift: Carney’s poll numbers are up, but Conservatives under Poilievre show grassroots strength. Affordability, not Trump, is the campaign’s core issue.
• Campaign Strategy: Conservative tone has shifted. The panel suggests the “adult in the room” narrative and emotional tone could determine voter swing.
• Electoral Math: Conservative success hinges on NDP vote splits—now at risk with NDP polling near single digits.