Eddie Fishman is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, adjunct professor of International & Public Affairs, and author of Choke Points: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War. A former U.S. State Department strategist, he served on the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff and Foreign Affairs Policy Board, and led Russia/Europe sanctions policy—bringing a rare, in-the-room perspective to how economic power really works.

In this conversation, we trace how “choke points”—where one nation dominates and substitutes are scarce—have turned minerals, microchips, and money flows into the quiet weapons of great-power rivalry. Eddie unpacks the geo-economic “impossible trinity”—why you can’t maximize interdependence, economic security, and geopolitical calm all at once—and what that trade-off means for leaders making bets on AI, batteries, and supply chains.

Whether you’re steering strategy, procurement, or policy, this episode will change how you spot fragile dependencies, anticipate where pressure will build next, and engage policymakers before the rules harden around you.

In this episode we cover:

• Why a true “choke point” = dominance plus low substitutability
• The geo-economic impossible trinity and its implications for business strategy
• Where the next choke points may emerge: AI compute, batteries/EVs, and the energy transition
• The firm’s role: don’t just adapt to policy—shape it (how to engage upstream, practically)
• Industrial policy realities: U.S. moves on rare earths and semis—benefits, risks, and tolerance for failure

Episode Timeline:

00:00 – Cold open: rare earths and leverage

02:00 – Guest introduction and Eddie’s background

05:45 - Strategy as “winning tomorrow,” not just today

07:02 - Defining choke points (dominance + substitution)

11:20 - The “impossible trinity” explained with historical arcs

27:05 - Should firms adapt or shape policy?

30:05 - Emerging choke points: AI chips, batteries, EVs

38:05 - U.S. industrial policy (MP Materials, Intel) and what comes next

Additional Resources:

Book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726149/chokepoints-by-edward-fishman/

X (Twitter): https://x.com/edwardfishman?lang=en

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-fishman

Thank you to our guest, our executive producer Zach Ness, our editor James Pearce, and the Outthinker team. If you enjoyed this episode, please follow, download, and subscribe. I’m your host, Kaihan Krippendorff—thank you for listening.
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