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Hello everyone! This is the second episode of series about Direct Air Capture describing Technology & Timing, Business Model & Scability (2nd post here) and finally the players (coming soon)
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Capturing carbon from thin air costs $600–$1,000 per ton. So… how do direct air capture companies stay alive? In this upbeat explainer we unpack the surprisingly clever “money stack” behind DAC: corporate offtakes, U.S. tax credits (45Q), California fuel credits (LCFS), and a sprinkle of product sales. We also break down unit economics with simple math, profile the leading players, and get honest about risks (policy, power, MRV, capex).
If you’ve ever wondered who actually pays for carbon removal—and why smart companies like Microsoft or Amazon sign giant contracts—this one’s for you.
What you’ll learn
- Why DAC costs $600–$1,000/t today—and who bridges the gap
- The revenue stack: corporate offtakes, 45Q tax credits, LCFS, products
- Quick math: $700/t cost – $180 (45Q) = $520/t to cover
- The main business archetypes (Climeworks, 1PointFive/Occidental, Heirloom, CarbonCapture)
- Real risks: policy swings, clean power access, MRV trust, big capex
- How early buyers overpay on purpose to push costs down—like early solar & wind
Mentioned / Resources
- Climeworks technology & credits → https://climeworks.com/direct-air-capture
- 1PointFive / Occidental STRATOS overview → https://www.1pointfive.com/
- Heirloom mineral looping explainer → https://www.heirloomcarbon.com/
- CarbonCapture modular approach / Project Bison → https://www.carboncapture.com/
- U.S. 45Q (IRS/DOE overview) → https://carboncapturecoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/45Q-primer-Carbon-Capture-Coalition.pdf
- California LCFS (program info) → https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/6308#:~:text=California's%20Low%20Carbon%20Fuel%20Standard,in%20the%20state%20through%202030.
- Frontier advanced market commitments (Stripe coalition) → https://frontierclimate.com/
Key takeaways
- DAC firms stack revenues (offtakes + policy + sometimes products).
- Early credits sell at $500–$800/t to fund learning curves.
- Same skeleton, different strategies: brand, integration, minerals, modular.
- Watch the contracts, costs, and kilowatts—that’s where winners emerge.
41 episodes
