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Eric Lascelles thinks the U.S. economy is in “slight decline,” which leaves rate cuts on the table for the Fed in December. He’s looking forward to September payrolls data at the end of next week. He discusses the scattered Dot Plot and disagreements within the Fed on the rate path as conflicting signals bounce around. He also talks about the potential impact of the government shutdown on the upcoming data and how the Fed could react to that.

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