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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, for the most inside-Treasury Budget preview we’ve ever recorded.

With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget just days away, Adam explains how decisions really get made — the politics, pressure, fiscal rules, OBR scrutiny and the moments where things nearly go off the rails.

Meanwhile, markets have been wild:

• Bitcoin drops 35% from the highs

• Nvidia posts one of the biggest earnings beats in history

• The Fed cools December cut expectations

• Long gilts sell off on credibility worries

• And Rich… turns fully bullish

This Week’s Highlights

💥 Crypto Crash: Bitcoin down another 10%; record ETF outflows
📈 Nvidia Surge: A huge quarter steadies the NASDAQ
🏦 Fed Cuts on Hold: Shutdown delays key data
🇬🇧 Gilt Volatility: Income-tax U-turn sends yields 30bp higher
⚡ AI Power Rush: 10 new US nuclear reactors approved
🥊 Portfolio Debate: Rich buys the dip; Spice agrees; CJ isn’t sure
🎩 Fantasy Budget: Adam, CJ, Spice & Rich pitch their own Budgets

Special Guest - Adam Smith

Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, reveals the real mechanics behind the Budget:

📊 The Scorecard — every tax & spend decision in one spreadsheet

🧮 Fiscal Rules — how they’re bent, stretched and stress-tested

🏛️ OBR Checks — what survives scrutiny (and what doesn’t)

🔥 Mini-Budget Lessons — why credibility beats headlines

🔮 Next Week’s Budget — freezes, pension tweaks, revenue raisers

Plus: the late-night calls, panic moments and political chaos behind every fiscal event.

Portfolio Snapshot:

Weekly performance: – 2.6%

Total return since inception: +7.20%

Top Performers:

🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF – +1.07%
🥈 Cash – +0.08%
🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF – –0.13%

Underperformers:

🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF – –14.74%
🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF – – 4.94%
🇺🇸 iShares Russell 2000 ETF – – 4.27%

Actions Taken:

Adding to portfolio:
+2.5% NASDAQ 100
+2.5% VanEck Crypto ETF

What You’ll Learn

How Budgets are really built

Why credibility matters more than the policy
Which tax levers actually raise money
What drives crypto deleveraging
Why AI infrastructure is a new macro theme
How markets price Budget moves instantly
Why too much cash destroys long-term returns

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

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Disclaimer

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

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