This week’s analysis looks at the future of Europe and Russia in a moment that feels similar to the film Casablanca. While Russia shows military strength and active sabotage in Europe, it also faces deep long-term weaknesses. At the same time, the United States is divided: part of America continues to defend Europe, while the MAGA movement prefers nationalist politics and even supports far-right groups inside the EU.

Europe is now deciding whether it should keep depending on the United States or become a real strategic power of its own. Using recent investigations, expert opinions, and international news, the lesson explains how today’s choices will shape the balance between democracy, security, and authoritarian influence in the years ahead.

Bibliography

• De Vries, Catherine, and Ilke Toygür. “How Europeans Can Go Beyond ‘Limiting Unpredictability’ and Respond to the MAGA Doctrine.” European Council on Foreign Relations, 13 November 2025.
• Friedman, Thomas L. “The ‘Useful Idiots’ From America Whom Putin Is Playing Like a Flute.” The New York Times, 4 December 2025.
• “German Parliament Backs Controversial Military Service Law Amid Russian Threat.” Reuters, 5 December 2025.
• Shear, Michael D., Jeanna Smialek, and Lara Jakes. “Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure’.” The New York Times, 5 December 2025 (summarised with additional reporting from Reuters/AP/Euronews).
• “Russia’s Putin Found ‘Morally Responsible’ for Nerve Agent Death in UK.” Reuters, 4 December 2025; see also Hansard, “Dawn Sturgess Inquiry.” UK Parliament, 4 December 2025.