The Polymath Pod: Jason Buck and Zed Francis talk rates, vol, and cheeseburgers?!

The Derivative

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6M ago 1:20:20

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To close out the 2024 season of the Derivative podcast, host Jeff Malec sits down with two friends of the pod, and friends of his - Jason Buck and Zed Francis - for a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the markets, the unpredictability of macro events, and the importance of understanding underlying structures and dynamics. The conversation begins with an exploration of the unexpected market reactions following the first Trump election (in ‘16), highlighting the challenges of the past, and ends with making sort of, semi- predictions for the year ahead in 2025. The guests delve into the concept of "volatility echoes" and how past events can influence future market reactions. The discussion then shifts to the impact of interest rates, with the guests analyzing the significant moves in the long end of the Treasury curve during the recent election week. They debate the potential implications for asset classes and the role of political influence on market dynamics. Beyond the macro landscape, the podcast also touches on the evolution of option strategies, the rise and fall of "pod shops," and the importance of liquidity and market maker strategies in stabilizing markets. The guests share their insights on navigating the complexities of the financial world. While the core of the conversation focuses on the markets, the episode also features a fun and engaging segment where the hosts and guests engage in a "Mount Rushmore" challenge, sharing their top picks for burgers, dive bars, and fine dining experiences around the world. You found it - the pod that gives you financial insights and culinary recommendations - so bring your appetite for mind and body…this ones’ juicy! SEND IT!

Chapters:

00:00-01:38= Intro

01:39-13:39= Recency Bias and the Volatility of Election Reactions

13:40-25:40= GOLD & the Delicate Balance of Market Resilience / Activist investors & Risk Adjusted returns

25:41-37:29= 2024’s most interesting trades & Stability Breeds Instability

37:30-48:51= Rates, Risks, & Realized Volatility

48:52-01:01:11= Outflows, Podshops & Random bones for the future

01:01:12-01:20:20= Menus & Markets: Mount Rushmores of eateries from “Culinary Experts” & 2025 insight

Follow along on X (Twitter) and LinkedIn with our guests Jason @jasoncbuck | LinkedIn and Zed @convexitas | LinkedIn

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