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HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons hosts the most downloaded sports podcast of all time, with a rotating crew of celebrities, athletes, and media staples, as well as mainstays like Cousin Sal, Joe House, and a slew of other friends and family members who always happen to be suspiciously available.
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Episode Description
As 2021 comes to a close, the real estate market has spiked dramatically over the last 12-18 months, leaving many wondering: Is it a good time to buy? Will prices crash or continue climbing? This episode dives deep into the data and expert predictions for 2022 housing prices, examining insights from Fortune and Wall Street Journal to understand what the future holds for homebuyers and investors.
Key Points Discussed
- Market Spike Reality: Real estate prices have increased dramatically in the last 12-18 months, creating uncertainty for potential buyers
- Expert Predictions: Both Fortune and Wall Street Journal forecast continued price increases across almost every U.S. market area
- Price Projections: Realtor.com predicts U.S. home prices will rise 2-8% in 2022, with some markets like Providence, Rhode Island expected to jump 9%
- Supply and Demand Crisis: Fewer listings available with even fewer expected in the future due to housing shortage
- No Price Drops Expected: Predictions show prices won't fall in any of the 100 largest markets, though sales volume will decline
- Millennial Impact: Five largest millennial birth years (1989-1993) hitting prime homebuying age of 30 between 2019-2023
- Builder Shortage: Builders played conservative after 2008 housing bust, creating a decade-long construction deficit
- Housing Deficit: Federal government and Freddie Mac estimate U.S. is under-built by 4-5 million homes
- Historic Low Inventory: Housing inventory has hit a 40-year low
- Market Acceleration: Sales on track for best year since 2006, with month-over-month acceleration
- Price Appreciation: Median existing home prices up 13.9% year-over-year, with 10 years of flat pricing (2008-2018) creating catch-up effect
- Buyer Competition: 50 people looking at the same three houses in markets like Indiana (not just high-cost areas)
- Strategic Buying: Buyers shopping for homes listed below $220K to make offers above asking price on $250K budget
Investment Strategies Discussed
- Alternative Entry Points: Consider cheaper alternatives to permanent dream homes as market entry strategy
- Ride the Wave: Get into the market to avoid being locked out during the predicted 10-year price appreciation cycle
- Look Below the Sweet Spot: Explore houses in the $100K range instead of the competitive $250K-$350K range
- Flip Strategy: Purchase less ideal properties for profit potential and upgrade later
Market Insights
- Geographic Spread: Price increases expected nationwide, not limited to major metropolitan areas
- Demographic Driver: Millennial generation entering prime homebuying years creating sustained demand
- Supply Constraints: Decade of under-building combined with increased demand creating perfect storm
- Investment Opportunity: Current market conditions may represent last chance to enter before significant price escalation
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