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Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)
Date: Friday, 24 October 2025
Episode Summary
A firmer but rangebound USD into US CPI, USD/JPY testing 153, and EUR/GBP subdued. Oil cools after Thursday’s sanctions-driven spike as compliance shifts bite Russian flows; gold is indecisive and copper holds near weekly highs. Washington prepares a Section 301 probe into China’s 2020 trade-deal compliance and weighs broader export-control tools, while a Trump–Xi meeting is set for next week. Beijing signals both greater market opening and a push for tech self-reliance. Geopolitics features expanded Russia sanctions, EU deliberations over funding via frozen assets, sensitive US–Israel signaling, and Venezuela-related narcotics enforcement rhetoric.
Key Topics Covered
- FX: USD firmer but contained; USD/JPY near 153; EUR soft, GBP steady near post-CPI lows; PBoC fix 7.0928 supports CNY stability; USD/CAD briefly >1.40 on US–Canada trade headlines; Antipodeans hold gains.
- Commodities: Crude pulls back from sanctions-driven rally; Chinese state oil firms pause some seaborne Russian purchases; Indian refiners tighten checks; gold indecisive into CPI; copper near weekly best.
- Trade & Policy: US readies Section 301 probe of China’s 2020 commitments; export-control options under review with G7 coordination; Trump–Xi meeting next week; He Lifeng–US talks in Malaysia; China plenum emphasizes tech self-reliance and market opening.
- Geopolitics: Russia–Ukraine: broader US energy-focused sanctions; possible future summit contingent on progress; EU explores funding options tied to frozen assets. Middle East: US says Israel will not act on West Bank; officials warn against steps that could jeopardize Gaza track. Americas: US denies B-1 flight near Venezuela, flags narcotics “land action.”
Suggested Segment Outline (add timestamps)
- Intro — Why today matters for FX & commodities
- FX Rundown — USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CNY, CAD, Antipodeans
- Energy & Metals — Oil retrace, gold/copper setup, sanction compliance effects
- Trade & Tech — Section 301 probe, export controls, Trump–Xi, Malaysia talks, China plenum takeaways
- Geopolitics — Russia–Ukraine, EU funding debate, Israel/Gaza, Venezuela angle
- Wrap — What to watch into and after US CPI
Key Takeaways
- Dollar firm, ranges intact; USD/JPY near 153 underscores policy divergence.
- Oil’s pullback follows a sanctions surge, but compliance shifts keep a risk premium.
- US–China policy track heats up: Section 301 probe plus possible export-control expansion ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting.
- Geopolitical risk remains elevated across Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Americas.
104 episodes
