Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)

Date: Monday, 27 October 2025

Episode summary:
Dollar steady; yen heavy near 153; PBoC sets its strongest fix in over a year. Oil holds a modest bid on sanction risk and stable Iraqi output; gold softer, copper breaks above USD 11k/t on improved US–China tone and firmer Chinese industrial profits. Trade headlines improve: US–China agree a talks framework, avert a tariff hike, and delay China’s rare-earth licensing; the US unveils a slate of Southeast Asia deals, including rare-earth access via Malaysia. North American tensions rise as Washington hikes tariffs on Canada and Ottawa cuts tariff-free auto quotas. Geopolitics stays hot: targeted strikes in Gaza with a potential multinational force under discussion, nuclear-drill signaling from Moscow as Kyiv pushes for broader energy sanctions, and DPRK diplomacy with Russia during the ASEAN week.

Key topics covered:
FX setup and policy divergence; oil/gas/metal moves; US–China trade framework and rare-earths delay; US–Vietnam framework and US deals with Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia; immediate US tariff increase on Canada and Canada’s quota cuts; Middle East and Ukraine war updates; DPRK–Russia engagement; ASEAN-week diplomacy; US–Japan tech cooperation preview.

Suggested segment outline (add timestamps):
Intro → FX rundown → Energy & metals → Trade and tech policy (US–China framework; SE Asia deals; Canada tariffs) → Geopolitics (Gaza, Ukraine, DPRK/Russia, ASEAN) → Wrap/what to watch into the Trump–Xi meeting.

Key takeaways:

• Managed stability from Beijing’s stronger CNY fix; yen softness keeps USD/JPY elevated.
• Oil supported by sanction overhang; gold softer, copper strong on trade optimism.
• Rare-earth licensing delay and regional trade pacts ease some supply-chain risk even as US–Canada frictions rise.
• Geopolitical risk remains elevated across Gaza, Ukraine, and the Korean Peninsula, keeping headline sensitivity high.