Episode 238: Tracking the Global Risk of Conventional Weapons Diversion with Nils Duquet

The International Risk Podcast

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16d ago 34:11

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This week on The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen is joined by Nils Duquet to explore the complex threat of conventional weapons diversion. As firearms and ammunition move from legal manufacture to illicit possession, they fuel global violence, empower organized crime, and destabilize post-conflict regions. In this episode, Nils breaks down how weapons are diverted through fraud, theft, non-regularization, and battlefield capture, shedding light on the real-world impact of these flows on both local and international security.

Drawing on his work across major European research initiatives—including Project DIVERT and the European Gun Violence Monitor—Nils unpacks the links between firearms and drug trafficking, the vulnerabilities in Europe's legal arms systems, and how legacy weapons from past wars continue to circulate in modern conflicts. He also shares lessons from Belgium and Sweden, two European countries grappling with increasing gun violence, and the policy reforms needed to tighten arms control and reduce diversion risks.

Nils Duquet is the Director of the Flemish Peace Institute and a leading expert on illicit firearms trafficking, arms control, and gun violence in Europe. He has authored over 70 publications and leads several large-scale EU projects focused on weapons diversion. Nils also chairs PEACE, a network of peace researchers, and created the AI-powered European Gun Violence Monitor.

The International Risk Podcast is a must-listen for senior executives, board members, and risk advisors. This weekly podcast dives deep into international relations, emerging risks, and strategic opportunities. Hosted by Dominic Bowen, Head of Strategic Advisory at one of Europe's top risk consulting firms, the podcast brings together global experts to share insights and actionable strategies.

Dominic's 20+ years of experience managing complex operations in high-risk environments, combined with his role as a public speaker and university lecturer, make him uniquely positioned to guide these conversations. From conflict zones to corporate boardrooms, he explores the risks shaping our world and how organisations can navigate them.

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Chapters

1. Opening & Guest Introduction (00:00:00)

2. What Is Weapons Diversion? (00:01:42)

3. Global Pathways to Illicit Firearms (00:03:43)

4. Smuggling and Conflict Zones (00:06:07)

5. Arms Fraud in Regulated Markets (00:07:17)

6. Theft as a Source of Illicit Arms (00:09:50)

7. The Firearms–Drug Market Nexus (00:12:50)

8. Europe’s Gun Violence Trends (00:17:25)

9. Firearms Hotspots in Europe (00:21:16)

10. Subscribe to our Newsletter (00:23:13)

11. Legacy Weapons & Post-Conflict Risks (00:23:29)

12. Non-Regularization: The Silent Diversion Threat (00:27:26)

13. Global Risks That Worry Nils the Most (00:31:12)

14. Outro & Final Reflections (00:33:23)

243 episodes

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