Week Ending 21/02/25 - Is Keir Starmer Europe's Trump Whisperer?

The Market Call

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This week, Gareth and Jeremy catch up on the week that marked one full month since Trump's return to the White House.

Following JD Vance's lecture to Europe in Munich, the US initiated peace talks with Russia in Riyadh. This confirmed that the old world order has moved to a new one involving power projection by strong men operating in their own economic and strategic interests. Europe, the UN, and NATO are not involved.
Starmer's meeting with Trump will be a career-defining event for him and a pivotal opportunity for the UK as a potential bridge between the US and the rest of Europe at this critical juncture for the West.
It also represents Trump's desire to tidy up Ukraine and Gaza to get to his main match-up, the strongman heavyweight contest between the US and China.

Xi has been boosting China's stock market and technology sector through a symbolic handshake with Jack Ma at a conference this week. The pair infamously fell out in 2021, with Ma disappearing from public view for a few years.

Alibaba shares and the wider Chinese stock market have performed much better than the US Mag Seven over the last month but remain well below their peak values of 4 years ago.
Gold had another strong week, and Trump says he is going to Fort Knox to check that the gold is still there. Gold and real assets have become more central to investor options as bonds have lost their appeal as risk-off assets in a more inflationary world.

Japan records much higher inflation, which seems to require much higher rates. However, the yen carry trade worries of last summer have not recurred.

In the UK, there remains mixed economic data, but, on balance, there is less likelihood of significantly lower rates soon as inflation trends up for the next few months.

Gareth runs through the week in company news, with caution from Thruvision and Zoo Digital and positive updates from Oxford Metrics, Beeks and Springfield Property.

The main event will be the German election on Sunday, which will have consequences for wider European politics, but don't expect things to happen quickly.

There are some US GDP and PCE inflation data, but the headlines will likely remain dominated by politics, with Starmer's trip to DC and Trump checking his gold reserves in Texas.

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