The Illusion of Diversification

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The Illusion of Diversification

1d ago 52:13

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Unlocking Private Market Potential: Key Insights from Jim Dowd of North Capital Jim Dowd, CEO of North Capital, brings four decades of experience across the sell-side and buy-side to my discussion with him on a topic top of mind for commercial real estate sponsors and investors: how to navigate a rapidly shifting capital landscape where regulation, liquidity, investor behavior, and macro volatility collide. Here are the key insights from our conversation – designed specifically to you make better, more informed investment decisions in today’s market. 1. Private Markets Are Growing — But Liquidity is the Blind Spot Jim sees a long-term, secular shift from public to private markets. This trend has been driven by:

Rising regulatory costs of public capital raises
Falling costs and barriers to entry in private placements
Broader investor access due to reduced minimums (from $250K+ to $10K–$20K)

But here’s the warning: private securities still lack liquidity. Investors participating in these syndicated deals should recognize that they are locked in, sometimes for years, with no clear exit. “It’s like three guys trying to run through a door at the same time – when everyone wants out, they can’t.” Solution: Jim’s firm has built an Alternative Trading System (ATS) to create secondary markets for private securities, a concept CRE sponsors might want to look at. While not yet equivalent to public exchanges, these platforms offer an emerging way to address investor liquidity concerns and could give forward-thinking sponsors a competitive edge. 2. Don’t Be Fooled by the Illusion of Diversification Many sponsors pitch private equity real estate as an uncorrelated asset class, perfect for diversifying out of stocks and bonds. Dowd challenges this narrative. “In a crisis, all risk assets tend to correlate. The illusion of diversification is mostly due to slow re-pricing in private markets.” Takeaway: Sponsors should be transparent with LPs. While real estate is a solid long-term asset, it’s not immune to systemic shocks. Treating it as a diversification tool must come with proper liquidity and risk disclosures. 3. Risk Has Moved From Banks to Private Markets Jim argues that the risk which once destabilized the banking sector during the GFC has now migrated to private markets. The positive spin: these markets are mostly backed by equity, not federally insured deposits, reducing systemic risk. Investors (LPs) should understand that the margin for error in private real estate has shrunk. Mispricing risk in this environment is more likely to catch up with you, especially in a rising rate context. 4. The 10-Year Treasury: The Most Important Metric in CRE Jim highlights the 10-year Treasury yield as the single most important signal CRE sponsors should track. Why? “A 6% cap rate in a 2% Treasury environment is fundamentally different than the same cap rate in a 4.5% Treasury world. That delta blows up every underwriting model.” Cap rate spreads are compressing. And yet, many sponsors haven’t recalibrated assumptions. Jim’s advice: treat macro indicators like interest rates and liquidity conditions as core components of your investment thesis, not just afterthoughts. 5. Investor Behavior Has Changed: Active Risk is Now in Private Markets Jim sees a structural shift in how investors approach risk:

Liquid portfolios (ETFs, mutual funds) are increasingly passive and macro-driven.
Private investments, including real estate, are now where most investors take active risk.
For sponsors, this has profound implications:
Investor trust and manager selection matter more than ever. Sponsors must demonstrate operational excellence and a clear, differentiated strategy.
Geographic proximity still matters. Many large managers raise capital locally. Relationships built within a 100-mile radius still drive much of the private capital flow.

6. On Crypto and Tokenization: Don’t Confuse the Two North Capital does not allocate to crypto but Jim is bullish on blockchain infrastructure for private markets, especially tokenization. “Blockchain could enable scalable, transparent, and low-cost transactions for private securities – if regulators allow it.” Tokenization may hold long-term promise for CRE sponsors looking to expand liquidity, access global investors, and reduce friction. But the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are still evolving. 7. Investor Advice: Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market Jim’s advice to investors (including his own son) is simple: don’t try to time the market. Instead:

Keep short-term money in treasuries or cash equivalents
Deploy long-term capital systematically over a 3–12 month window
Accept volatility as the price of long-term outperformance

For sponsors, this means messaging matters. Emphasize long-term fundamentals over short-term fear. Help investors contextualize volatility and maintain confidence in your strategy.

8. Watch for These Signals: What Could Change the Outlook Jim tracks two key macro indicators to signal inflection points:

The 10-Year Treasury yield (as mentioned above)
Capital flows in public markets – a pullback here could foreshadow slower fundraising in private markets.

Beyond markets, two external shocks could force sponsors to reevaluate assumptions:

A geopolitical crisis (India–Pakistan tensions, Middle East escalation, Ukraine/Russia fallout)
A surprise inflation spike, particularly driven by tariffs, energy, or trade policy shocks

Investors need to ask: “Can my portfolio withstand a 30–40% drawdown without breaking my long term plans?” If the answer is no, you have too much exposure to risk and should dial back. Final Takeaway for CRE Sponsors Jim Dowd’s insights are a timely reminder that capital formation in private real estate markets is entering a new phase – defined by rising macro uncertainty, evolving liquidity expectations, and heightened investor scrutiny. Sponsors who embrace transparency, align offerings with institutional risk frameworks, and prepare for greater regulatory and market sophistication will be best positioned to lead, and raise, in this new environment. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get:

Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.
Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.
Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before.

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