Earnings Season has commenced with lowered expectations, meaning higher "beat" rates for companies, thanks to the lowered bar. Market react mildly to Mexican & Canadian 30% Tariffs; a warning for this week's CPI Report: The past four reports have been lower than expected, so a much higher number may be printed this time around. A three-month preview of market probabilities shows 50-50 chance of continued bullish activity; BUT, markets are over bought, and the odds are even for a correction of as much as 5% back to the 6,000 level. Lance shares his family's weekend exploits with Tex Mex food and Mrs. Roberts' new penchant for sourdough bread making. Lance reviews his weekend piece on Absolute vs Relative Returns, the consequences of both, and three things required for market predictions. We are naturally negatively biased; why market compounding is a myth; average vs compound returns are very different; what really caused the Dot-com Crash. NOTE: There are BIG changes coming to The Real Investment Show; if you're not subscribed here, you could miss out. Comparing Trade War outcomes: 2017 vs 2025. The risk to markets now: Trump vs Powell tiffs; the markets want an independent Fed; the risk to be aware of. "Con" is short for "Confidence Game.: SEG-1: Earnings Season Begins SEG-2a: Tex-Mex & Sourdough SEG-2b: Absolute vs Relative Returns SEG-3: Dealing with Our Naturally Negative Bias SEG-4a: Big Changes Coming SEG-4b: Maybe this Trade War Really Isn't that Different Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbuyQ4mMSas&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What’s More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Risks Ahead of Earnings Season," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUggnhse9kk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What the Big Beautiful Bill Means for Your Money & Retirement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juL4OhaFgbo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=114s ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #Tariff #RelativeReturns #AbsoluteReturns #InvestmentStrategy #PortfolioPerformance #InvestorEducation #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing