#39 - Daniel Kokotajlo - Wargames, Superintelligence & Quitting OpenAI

Win-Win with Liv Boeree

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AI is developing at breakneck speed—but are we properly prepared for what’s coming?

To explore this question Igor and I grabbed leading AI researcher and forecaster Daniel Kokotajlo for a conversation about why he left OpenAI, what's right and wrong with their company culture, and how tabletop wargames are one of the best tools we have to prepare for AGI and superintelligence in the current hyper-competitive environment.

Learn how these simulations—often used by militaries—can help us better forecast the geopolitical and technical dynamics of AI development, and why so many of them end with one person taking over the world. The gang also explore the challenges of AI alignment, incentive structures and reasons for hope. And of course, lots of predictions. Win-Win!

Chapters

0:00 - Intro

01:06 - AI Wargame & Superintelligence

05:15 - Resigning from OpenAI

09:15 - That Non-Disparagement Clause & His Equity

12:50 - Could OpenAI's behavior be Justified?

20:50 - Governance in a world with AGI

23:49 - Grading Daniel's AI predictions

31:37 - Hyperstition yay or nay?

38:09 - AI war games

46:50 - AI deception and misalignment

53:27 - More AI war games

1:03:16 - Common sense AI policies

1:23:01 - Science Fiction

1:27:12 - Rapid fire predictions

Links :

♾️ Daniel's new Predictions : https://ai-2027.com

♾️ His Historic predictions : https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

♾️ AI - Futures: https://ai-futures.org

♾️ Time Article on Daniel : https://time.com/7086285/ai-transparency-measures/

♾️ Professional Wargaming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming

♾️ UN Pandemic Exercise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174&list=PL9-oVXQX88esnrdhaiuRdXGG7XOVYB9Xm&index=2

♾️ Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness”: https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf

♾️ Daniel’s X: https://x.com/DKokotajlo Credits

♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov

♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page

♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico

The Win-Win Podcast

Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

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