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#39 - Daniel Kokotajlo - Wargames, Superintelligence & Quitting OpenAI

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Manage episode 474958077 series 3611008
Content provided by Liv Boeree. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Liv Boeree or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

AI is developing at breakneck speed—but are we properly prepared for what’s coming?

To explore this question Igor and I grabbed leading AI researcher and forecaster Daniel Kokotajlo for a conversation about why he left OpenAI, what's right and wrong with their company culture, and how tabletop wargames are one of the best tools we have to prepare for AGI and superintelligence in the current hyper-competitive environment.

Learn how these simulations—often used by militaries—can help us better forecast the geopolitical and technical dynamics of AI development, and why so many of them end with one person taking over the world. The gang also explore the challenges of AI alignment, incentive structures and reasons for hope. And of course, lots of predictions. Win-Win!

Chapters

0:00 - Intro

01:06 - AI Wargame & Superintelligence

05:15 - Resigning from OpenAI

09:15 - That Non-Disparagement Clause & His Equity

12:50 - Could OpenAI's behavior be Justified?

20:50 - Governance in a world with AGI

23:49 - Grading Daniel's AI predictions

31:37 - Hyperstition yay or nay?

38:09 - AI war games

46:50 - AI deception and misalignment

53:27 - More AI war games

1:03:16 - Common sense AI policies

1:23:01 - Science Fiction

1:27:12 - Rapid fire predictions

Links :

♾️ Daniel's new Predictions : https://ai-2027.com

♾️ His Historic predictions : https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

♾️ AI - Futures: https://ai-futures.org

♾️ Time Article on Daniel : https://time.com/7086285/ai-transparency-measures/

♾️ Professional Wargaming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming

♾️ UN Pandemic Exercise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174&list=PL9-oVXQX88esnrdhaiuRdXGG7XOVYB9Xm&index=2

♾️ Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness”: https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf

♾️ Daniel’s X: https://x.com/DKokotajlo Credits

♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov

♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page

♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico

The Win-Win Podcast

Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

Podcast links

♾️ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S

♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f

♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350

♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2

#winwinpodcast #ai #openai

  continue reading

44 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 474958077 series 3611008
Content provided by Liv Boeree. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Liv Boeree or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://staging.podcastplayer.com/legal.

AI is developing at breakneck speed—but are we properly prepared for what’s coming?

To explore this question Igor and I grabbed leading AI researcher and forecaster Daniel Kokotajlo for a conversation about why he left OpenAI, what's right and wrong with their company culture, and how tabletop wargames are one of the best tools we have to prepare for AGI and superintelligence in the current hyper-competitive environment.

Learn how these simulations—often used by militaries—can help us better forecast the geopolitical and technical dynamics of AI development, and why so many of them end with one person taking over the world. The gang also explore the challenges of AI alignment, incentive structures and reasons for hope. And of course, lots of predictions. Win-Win!

Chapters

0:00 - Intro

01:06 - AI Wargame & Superintelligence

05:15 - Resigning from OpenAI

09:15 - That Non-Disparagement Clause & His Equity

12:50 - Could OpenAI's behavior be Justified?

20:50 - Governance in a world with AGI

23:49 - Grading Daniel's AI predictions

31:37 - Hyperstition yay or nay?

38:09 - AI war games

46:50 - AI deception and misalignment

53:27 - More AI war games

1:03:16 - Common sense AI policies

1:23:01 - Science Fiction

1:27:12 - Rapid fire predictions

Links :

♾️ Daniel's new Predictions : https://ai-2027.com

♾️ His Historic predictions : https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

♾️ AI - Futures: https://ai-futures.org

♾️ Time Article on Daniel : https://time.com/7086285/ai-transparency-measures/

♾️ Professional Wargaming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming

♾️ UN Pandemic Exercise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174&list=PL9-oVXQX88esnrdhaiuRdXGG7XOVYB9Xm&index=2

♾️ Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness”: https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf

♾️ Daniel’s X: https://x.com/DKokotajlo Credits

♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov

♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page

♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico

The Win-Win Podcast

Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

Podcast links

♾️ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S

♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f

♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350

♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2

#winwinpodcast #ai #openai

  continue reading

44 episodes

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