Trade Wars | Recession | What about your Portfolio?

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

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18d ago 22:34

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🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk

Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May.
GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners.
Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70.

💥 Global Markets in Turmoil

S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%.
Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950.
But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips.

S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025

🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption

104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years.
Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est).
Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course.
Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders.

🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk

Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China).
Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession.
Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out.

🏦 US Treasuries Drama

Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows.
Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt?

💡 What To Do As An Investor

Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks.
Opportunities:
- SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds
- Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe
- Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications 02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions 05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts 09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times 12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks 14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts

551 episodes

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