Are we on the brink of a 2025 recession—or just feeling the squeeze? In this Zero Signal Shorts deep dive, Jay connects the key signals in the US economy: recession probability, a rising unemployment rate, weakening labor-force participation, and why recent college grads face elevated jobless and underemployment rates as AI automation trims junior white-collar roles. We walk through housing affordability math in 2025 (bigger mortgages, pricier rents), stubborn grocery and car-payment inflation, and wage stagnation, then zoom out to GDP growth and the outsized role of AI CapEx—plus what an AI pullback could mean for stocks, 401(k)s, and the broader labor market. Jay digs into the college-to-career bottleneck, immigration-linked wage pressures, and the risk of an AI bubble feeding market volatility, while outlining practical steps to prepare: tighten budgets, de-risk high-exposure bets, build emergency buffers, and upskill into resilient roles.

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