What are we still missing in catastrophe modelling and how can we close the gap?

As part of InsTech’s The Future of Catastrophe Risk: Where Science Meets Reality event, this expert panel explored the limitations of current catastrophe models and how the insurance industry can evolve its approach to risk.

Hosted by Ludovico Nicotina (Inigo), with insights from Sandra Hansen (Guy Carpenter) and Paul Wilson (Twelve Securis), the discussion focused on where models fall short, how emerging risks are challenging traditional assumptions and what it will take to build more resilient, climate-aware modelling frameworks.

In this conversation, the panel explores:

• What current models overlook — from unmodelled sub-perils to social and infrastructure vulnerabilities
• How inter-annual clustering and systemic effects drive outsized losses
• The tension between increasing model flexibility and responsible use of adaptation features
• Whether vendors are providing enough transparency to support custom views of risk
• How the industry can better incorporate future climate states into today’s modelling tools
• The case for cross-sector collaboration and more open sharing of internal risk perspectives

If you like what you’re hearing, please leave us a review on whichever platform you use or contact Matthew Grant on LinkedIn.

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Continuing Professional Development

This InsTech Podcast Episode is accredited by the Chartered Insurance Institute (CII). By listening, you can claim up to 0.5 hours towards your CPD scheme.

By the end of this podcast, you should be able to meet the following Learning Objectives:

• Identify best practices for using adaptation and resilience features within CAT models responsibly.
• Produce informed strategies for interpreting and adjusting model outputs to reflect internal views of risk.
• Summarise the practical steps insurers and risk managers can take to bridge the gap between science and real-world application.

If your organisation is a member of InsTech and you would like to receive a quarterly summary of the CPD hours you have earned, visit the Episode 377 page of the InsTech website or email [email protected] to let us know you have listened to this podcast.

To help us measure the impact of the learning, we would be grateful if you would take a minute to complete a quick feedback survey.