Episode 13 of @TradingPlacesPod featuring Emily Zheng (@Pitchbook) is out now!

Welcome to Trading Places, the extremely terrible, very bad podcast on VC secondaries. Hosts Dave McClure and Aman Verjee (with special guest Amber filling in) break down the biggest news in venture secondaries, late-stage funding rounds, market dynamics, and this week's exclusive interview with Emily Zheng from Pitchbook.

Emily walks through Pitchbook's Q3 2025 VC Secondary Market Report, revealing that secondaries have officially arrived as a mainstream exit option alongside IPOs and acquisitions. The trio discusses macro headwinds (jobs recession, Bitcoin crash, Fed uncertainty), AI company valuations (Anthropic, Google Gemini 3), prediction market mania (Kalshi, Polymarket), fintech growth (Ramp, Kraken), and platform consolidation (Schwab/Forge).

In Valuation Corner, Professor Verjee analyzes Ramp's meteoric rise to a $32B valuation—doubling from $16B in just 5 months on the strength of $1B+ ARR and triple-digit growth. The team compares Ramp vs Brex and discusses the competitive spend management landscape.

[ timestamps ]

00:00 — intro

00:38 — market volatility hits: Bitcoin, Mag 7, Nvidia concerns

07:42 — Fed rate cut uncertainty & macro headwinds

11:43 — Gemini 3 launch: Google back in the AI race?

14:20 — Anthropic raises $15B from Microsoft & Nvidia

17:24 — Ramp raises $300M @ $32B valuation

20:33 — Kalshi ($11B) vs Polymarket ($15B): prediction market arms race

22:02 — Kraken raises $200M @ $20B (Citadel backs crypto)

26:13 — Fair's $100M+ tender offer

29:28 — General Atlantic invests in SmartHR (Japan secondary)

40:31 — Meta wins FTC antitrust case: M&A implications

[ interview: emily zheng, pitchbook ]

43:37 — introducing Emily Zheng, Pitchbook's VC secondary analyst

47:02 — Q3 2025 VC secondary market report highlights

50:31 — secondaries now on par with IPOs & M&A ($95B market)

53:41 — direct secondaries surge 31% to $80B annually

57:28 — top 5 companies = 54.7% of all trading volume

59:01 — top 20 companies = 80.4% of secondary market

01:04:30 — SPVs explode: 682% increase in secondary SPVs

01:07:07 — single vs double-layer SPV structures

01:11:42 — tailwinds for recent fundraisers vs 2020-2022 vintage

01:17:06 — discount dynamics: 0-8.5% for recent rounds, 33-61% for 2020-2022

01:20:33 — Hiive raises Series B @ $650M valuation on own platform

01:24:50 — Schwab acquires Forge ($660M), platform consolidation continues

01:28:04 — industry trends: more tender offers, ROFR dynamics

[ valuation corner: ramp ]

01:32:16 — Ramp @ $32B: from $16B to $32B in 5 months

01:36:22 — $1B+ ARR, 133% YoY growth, profitable

01:40:31 — Ramp vs Brex comparison

01:43:37 — competitive landscape: can they beat SAP Concur?

links:

[ trading places podcast = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ]

[ emily zheng pitchbook = https://pitchbook.com/news/authors/emily-zheng ]

[ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ]

[ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure]

Pod Highlights This Week:

-Secondaries = new exit option: VC secondary market hits $95B annually—now matching IPOs ($105B) and M&A ($107B) as a viable exit path​

-Market concentration is real: Top 5 companies account for 54.7% of all secondary trading volume; top 20 capture 80.4%​

-SPV explosion: Secondary SPVs increased 682% in deal count and 1,340% in capital raised (2023 vs 2025 Q1-Q3)​

-Discount math matters: Recent fundraisers (2024+) trade at 0-8.5% discounts; 2020-2022 vintage faces 33-61% haircuts​

-Bitcoin volatility: Down 35% from $125K peak to $84K amid Fed uncertainty and jobs recession signals

-AI wars continue: Google's Gemini 3 impresses (Altman and Musk congratulate); Anthropic raises $15B from Microsoft & Nvidia at $350B valuation

-Prediction markets heat up: Kalshi ($11B) and Polymarket ($15B) both raising massive rounds—coming for DraftKings' and FanDuel's lunch money